Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction & Picks: CFP Cotton Bowl Odds

The second College Football Playoff semifinal occurs Friday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes get together with the Texas Longhorns in the 2025 Cotton Bowl. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Our Ohio State vs. Texas prediction focuses on fading the public with an underdog spread play. Our best sports betting sites list the Buckeyes as 6-point favorites to advance to the national championship.

Ohio State is also the college football championship odds favorite, so do the Longhorns stand a chance in this pivotal clash? Our College Football Playoff semifinal predictions believe so.

Ohio State vs. Texas prediction & best pick: CFP Cotton Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Texas +6 () vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Texas ATS prediction

Texas to cover the spread: +6 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

The real national championship

As our Rob Paul highlighted earlier this week in his college football championship odds piece, these teams have the highest blue-chip ratios of any team in the remaining field. If you look at nearly every metric, one - if not both - team appears in the top 10.

For all intents and purposes, these are the two best teams in the country, and they've seemingly been on a collision course all season. All of that being said, aside from the last game, there's no reason to suggest Ohio State is six points better than Texas.

The Buckeyes have played two perfect games in the College Football Playoff. While their roster is capable of blowing the doors off any team on any given day, it's incredibly difficult to string together three consecutive flawless performances against top competition.

Texas is built to beat the Buckeyes

Furthermore, the Longhorns are built to beat Ohio State. While Steve Sarkisian didn't have a crystal ball that foresaw this semifinal showdown, he built his team on the back a strong offensive line and stubborn defense, similar to Michigan, which is built solely to bully the Buckeyes.

Texas has the talent in the defensive secondary and trenches to slow down - not stop, but slow down - Chip Kelly's high-flying offense. 

While we won't take the Longhorns outright, we do like them to keep this game closer than our best sportsbooks suggest. DraftKings has the best odds on the market among those still offering Texas +6 at standard juice.

Ohio State vs. Texas best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jeremiah Smith anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%

Jeremiah Smith has been the best player in the country since the start of the College Football Playoff. The freshman has put up 290 yards in two games, including a season-high 187 during Ohio State's 41-21 win over No. 1 Oregon. As a result, his receiving yards prop has jumped at our best sports betting apps to anywhere from 79.5 to 85.5 yards.

Smith's only gone over these totals at a 50% clip over the last four games, so instead, we'll turn to his touchdown props. Even though his odds as an anytime touchdown scorer are juiced to -125 at BetMGM, it's a play we feel comfortable recommending.

Smith has four touchdowns over the past two games. He's got 15 total this season, and he's only failed to find the end zone in three of 14 games. The superstar wideout is scoring at a 78.57% clip and with these odds implying just a 55.56% probability he finds pay dirt, there's too much value to pass up on.

Ohio State vs. Texas odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Ohio State vs. Texas live odds

Ohio State vs. Texas opening odds:

• Ohio State: -6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Texas: +6.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Ohio State vs. Texas injuries

Cotton Bowl game info

• When: Friday, Jan. 10
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Ohio State -6 (-110 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

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