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Ohio State vs. Texas Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: CFP Cotton Bowl

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 10, 2025 6:00 AM EST • 3 min 50 sec read.

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith celebrates a first down catch during the second half of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Oregon Ducks as we look at our Ohio State vs. Texas Player Prop Picks and Touchdown Prediction.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith celebrates a first down catch during the second half of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Oregon Ducks. Photo by

There should be plenty of fireworks during the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington when the Ohio State Buckeyes meet the Texas Longhorns at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN to determine who plays in the national championship.

  • Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite in the college football national championship odds
  • Texas became the first program to win every New Year’s Six Bowl when it defeated Arizona State during the Peach Bowl last week
  • The Longhorns have already clinched their third 13-win season in program history

We make our best touchdown prediction and two other player prop wagers as part of our Ohio State vs. Texas player prop picks for the Cotton Bowl.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.

Ohio State vs. Texas college football player prop picks: CFP Cotton Bowl

College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

  • Jeremiah Smith touchdown prediction: Smith to score a first-half touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Quinn Ewers prop pick: Over 236.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐
  • TreVeyon Henderson prop pick: Under 47.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Texas touchdown prediction

Jeremiah Smith to score a first half touchdown ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +140 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 41.67%

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Jeremiah Smith has stamped his breakout freshman season with 13 catches, 290 receiving yards, and four touchdowns through Ohio State's first two College Football Playoff games.

Smith has been routinely torching the best defenses he's faced all season, with three total touchdowns in two games against Oregon, two against Tennessee, and one when clashing with a stingy Iowa unit.

Smith’s -125 anytime touchdown odds at Caesars against Texas are manageable compared to the steeper -165 price through FanDuel (carrying a 62.26% implied probability) . 

But I'm instead opting for a more appealing play and taking Smith to score a first-half touchdown. He's done that in both of Ohio State's playoff games, including the first touchdown of the game during the first three minutes of each contest.

A $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ +140 odds would pay out $24.

Best Ohio State vs. Texas prop picks

Quinn Ewers Over 236.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.37%

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Quinn Ewers has soared over this projected total during two of his last three games, throwing for 322-plus yards twice during that span. 

Ewers finished the regular season with three straight clunkers of 218 or fewer passing yards. But the Longhorns didn't face an explosive offense they needed to keep up with during those wins against Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Arkansas.

The signal-caller has gone over this projected passing total three times during the past four games when Texas has given up 22-plus points. And the Buckeyes' defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in success rate, so the Longhorns should need to push the ball downfield more than usual while behind the chains.

Ohio State has scored 40-plus points while accumulating 450-plus yards from scrimmage in both playoff wins this season, and Ewers and the Longhorns will likely need to throw the ball plenty to keep pace. 

Over backers are getting the best number and price at FanDuel. Our competing best sportsbooks like Caesars and bet365 are setting the total at 244.5, with the Over at bet365 also juiced to -115.

TreVeyon Henderson Under 47.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.37%

TreVeyon Henderson hasn't finished with more carries in a game than teammate Quinshon Judkins during the team's previous 12 contests. So it's clear that Ryan Day’s preferred pecking order is Judkins getting the bulk of the work.

That makes this a great sell-high spot on Henderson, as he's coming off a season-high 94 rushing yards on just eight carries. But that was against an Oregon defense that had ranked below the 20th percentile in stuff rate and defensive line yards.

A Texas defense that entered last week ranked in the 98th percentile or better in EPA/play allowed, rush explosiveness allowed, and rush success rate allowed should provide much more resistance in the trenches. 

With the O/U a tad lower at 44.5 through bet365 and Caesars, I'm making this wager at FanDuel. That book is alone among our best sports betting sites while charging less than the standard -115 juice to back the Under at 47.5.

Cotton Bowl live odds & game info

  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET 
  • Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Ohio State -6 ()

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”