Ohio State vs. Texas Expert Picks: Player Props, Touchdown Predictions & More

The College Football Playoff semifinals wrap up tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) when the Ohio State Buckeyes (-6) take on the Texas Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Ohio State is favored to win the Cotton Bowl across our best college football betting sites, and we've rounded up our best Ohio State vs. Texas expert picks featuring a game prediction, player props, and touchdown scorer predictions for today's CFP semifinal.

Ohio State vs. Texas expert picks: CFP Cotton Bowl

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Against the spread pick: Texas +6 () vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop pick: TreVeyon Henderson Under 47.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Touchdown scorer prediction: Jeremiah Smith to score a touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don't miss Philip Wood's Ohio State vs. Texas parlay picks for a shot at a +500 payday!  

Best Ohio State vs. Texas picks

Texas to cover the spread: +6 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

As our Rob Paul highlighted earlier in his college football championship odds piece, these teams have the highest blue-chip ratios of any team in the remaining field. If you look at nearly every metric, one (if not both) of these teams appear in the top 10.

For all intents and purposes, these are the two best teams in the country, and they've seemingly been on a collision course all season. All of that being said, aside from the last game, there's no reason to suggest Ohio State is six points better than Texas.

The Buckeyes have played two perfect games in the College Football Playoff. While their roster is capable of blowing the doors off any team on any given day, it's incredibly difficult to string together three consecutive flawless performances against top competition.

Furthermore, the Longhorns are built to beat Ohio State. While Steve Sarkisian didn't have a crystal ball that foresaw this semifinal showdown, he built his team on the back of a strong offensive line and stubborn defense, similar to Michigan, which is built solely to bully the Buckeyes.

Ohio State vs. Texas prediction made by Gabe Henderson.

TreVeyon Henderson Under 47.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Henderson hasn't finished with more carries in a game than teammate Quinshon Judkins during the team's previous 12 contests. So it's clear that Ryan Day’s preferred pecking order is Judkins getting the bulk of the work.

That makes this a great sell-high spot on Henderson, as he's coming off a season-high 94 rushing yards on just eight carries. But that was against an Oregon defense that had ranked below the 20th percentile in stuff rate and defensive line yards.

A Texas defense that entered last week ranked in the 98th percentile or better in EPA/play allowed, rush explosiveness allowed, and rush success rate allowed should provide much more resistance in the trenches. 

With the O/U a tad lower at 44.5 through bet365 and Caesars, I'm making this wager at FanDuel. That book is alone among our best sports betting sites while charging less than the standard -115 juice to back the Under at 47.5.

Ohio State vs. Texas player prop picks made by Mike Spector.

Jeremiah Smith to score a touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%

Here is Smith's stat line in two College Football Playoff games: 13 receptions, 290 yards, and four touchdowns.

Is any further justification for this pick necessary? To say the freshman has been sensational would be an understatement. Smith has likely been the best individual player throughout two rounds of the College Football Playoff.

His anytime touchdown odds are juiced, similar to Henderson and Judkins. However, unlike the running back duo, it's clear Smith is the No. 1 option in the passing game. He and Emeka Egbuka both have 70 receptions this season, but it's the freshman who edges out the senior in receiving yards and touchdowns.

Smith has scored in 11 of Ohio State's 14 games this year. He'll face one of the toughest tests of his young career against projected first-round pick Jahdae Barron, but seeing as he's found the end zone four times in two playoff games, we're comfortable backing him in this spot.

You can also mitigate your risk with our exclusive BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS1550, which offers up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first wager loses.

Ohio State vs. Texas anytime touchdown scorer predictions made by Gabe Henderson.

CFP Cotton Bowl expert picks

• Ohio State vs. Texas prediction
• Ohio State vs. Texas player props
• Ohio State vs. Texas parlay picks
• Ohio State vs. Texas touchdown predictions
• Jeremiah Smith player props

CFP Cotton Bowl game info

• When: Friday, Jan. 10
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Ohio State -6 (-115 via BetMGM)

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