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Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 5

Philip Wood

Last Updated: September 27, 2024 11:38 AM EDT • 3 min 29 sec read.

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard drops to throw during the first quarter against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Ohio Stadium as we look at our Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction.
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard drops to throw during the first quarter against the Marshall Thundering Herd at Ohio Stadium. Photo by Joseph Maiorana/Imagn Images.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the three-plus touchdown favorites as they head on the road to clash with the Michigan State Spartans. The Buckeyes also enter Week 5 as the favorites in the college football championship odds.

Wagers barely favor the Buckeyes, as the Big Ten Championship odds front-runner is taking 55% of bets to cover the spread. This split support shows that this matchup isn't easy for sharps or the public to identify.

The Buckeyes have notched 35-plus-point wins in each of their last four games. However, they have yet to face a Power 4 team.

Meanwhile, the Spartans are fresh off a narrow 23-19 defeat at Boston College. Do they boast enough talent to keep this game close?

To complement the rest of our Big Ten predictions, here is our best Ohio State vs. Michigan State prediction, picks, and odds for Saturday:

Best Ohio State vs. Michigan State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Michigan State +23.5 () vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop pick: Aidan Chiles Over 1.5 interceptions () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Michigan State against the spread prediction: Week 5

Michigans State to cover the spread: +23.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Ohio State vs. Michigan State opening odds:

  • Ohio State: -23.5 ()
  • Michigan State: +23.5 ()

All of our best sports betting sites are listing the spread at 23.5 points, with DraftKings and BetMGM offering prices better than -110 for the Spartans to cover.

BetMGM is featuring the best price of all, asking -105 compared to -108 from DraftKings.

Untested road favorites

There’s no denying the Buckeyes are a very good team this season. However, it’s nearly impossible to really gauge just how good they are after their first three games.

Marshall, Western Michigan, and Akron aren’t going to compete against many Power 4 teams this season. So winning by a combined 157-20 really tells us nothing.

The Spartans have faced two Power 4 opponents, defeating the Maryland Terrapins 27-24 in Maryland and falling to the Boston College Eagles 23-19 last week on a last-minute score. In last week’s game, Aidan Chiles threw three interceptions. Had he taken care of the football, the Spartans likely would have won the game.

Chiles will be up against a great defense this week, and it’s likely he'll throw multiple interceptions again. However, the Spartans are also going to score some points, and in a home prime-time game against the No. 3 team in the country, home-field advantage will be legit.

The Buckeyes will still win with ease, but the Spartans will keep it within three scores.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State prop pick for Week 5

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Aidan Chiles Over 1.5 interceptions (+210) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chiles has thrown a staggering seven interceptions this season. Last week’s three-interception performance was already his third multi-interception game of the campaign.

The only time he didn’t throw at least two interceptions in a game was when the signal-caller faced the Prarie View A&M Panthers. Unfortunately for Chiles, the Buckeyes couldn’t be further from the Panthers.

The Buckeyes' defense has only registered two interceptions this season, but the unit is also only allowing 113.3 passing yards per game. Ohio State's opponents have essentially just rolled over and admitted defeat in each game, only attempting 24.3 passes per outing.

That won’t be the case on Saturday, as Chiles is positioned to make numerous mistakes, giving the Buckeyes a chance to pad their stats.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 32.26%

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Ohio State vs. Michigan State game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 28
  • Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
  • How to watch: Peacock
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, 12-mph wind
  • Favorite: Ohio State -23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.