Notre Dame vs. USC Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks: Love Runs All Over Trojans

The USC Trojans will look to slow down the fifth-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish when the two rivals clash on Saturday.

As part of our Week 14 college football predictions, I'm making my best Notre Dame vs. USC player prop bet picks for Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS) game in Los Angeles. But I wonder if favorable matchups have inflated both teams’ stats.

For example, the Trojans have one of the best-scoring defenses in football, but they’ve played weak offenses. Can they slow down Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard?

And is the Fighting Irish pass defense really the top unit in the nation? With this question in mind, and the Fighting Irish favored by 7.5, what should we expect from Trojans’ receiver Makai Lemon?

Notre Dame vs. USC college football player prop bets: Saturday

Odds as of Thursday and subject to change.

• Riley Leonard touchdown pick: 2+ touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐
• Jeremiyah Love Over 77.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Makai Lemon Over 3.5 receptions (+115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

College football picks made Thursday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Notre Dame vs. USC touchdown pick

Riley Leonard 2+ touchdowns (+375) ⭐⭐⭐

Leonard has been held without a touchdown for consecutive weeks, as he’s beaten teams with his arm rather than his legs. He’s thrown five touchdown passes in his last two games after throwing just nine in his first nine games. But he still has 13 rushing touchdowns this season, going for at least two in four games.

The Trojans' defense is 25th in the nation, allowing just 21.2 points per game. But when you look at their schedule, it’s not hard to see why they’ve had so much success. They’ve played five games in a row against teams averaging fewer than 25.0 points per game. 

Leonard has been the key to the Fighting Irish averaging 39 points per game. The price for scoring one touchdown provides no value, but getting +375 for two is especially good when you realize he’s scored at least one touchdown in eight of his 11 games.

Best odds: +375 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 21.05%

Best Notre Dame vs. USC prop bets

Jeremiyah Love Over 77.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Love has rushed for at least 130 yards in back-to-back games. He’s now topped 100 yards in three of his last four games, and he’s about to face a team allowing 130.1 rushing yards per game.

While the Trojans are allowing the 38th-fewest rushing yards per game this season, a lot of that has to do with the teams they’ve faced. The Fighting Irish have the 11th-best run offense in the nation, and I expect Leonard and Love to dominate a defense with inflated stats.

FanDuel agrees with me, as the sportsbook has the total listed at 82.5, while our other best sports betting apps have the total set at 77.5.

Mike Spector is also backing Love in his Notre Dame vs. USC prediction.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Makai Lemon Over 3.5 receptions (+115) ⭐⭐⭐

Lemon has caught just two passes in each of his last two games, but it’s hard not to love this price, even in a tough matchup. Before his last two weeks, Lemon had caught at least four passes in four consecutive games, including six against the Penn State Nittany Lions. 

The Fighting Irish have the top-ranked pass defense in football, allowing just 139.5 yards per game. But Lemon proved his worth against the Nittany Lions, a team that ranks 11th in pass defense. And the Fighting Irish numbers are inflated from playing teams like Army and Navy who run on almost every play.

To me, this feels like a true 50/50 bet, especially with the Trojans likely to be playing from behind and relying on their passing attack. So to get an implied probability of 46.51% is an excellent value.

Best odds: +115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 46.51%

Notre Dame vs. USC game info

• When: Saturday, Nov. 30
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: 77 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph WNW
• Favorite: Notre Dame -7.5 (-104 via FanDuel)

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