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Notre Dame vs. Penn State Prediction Tonight:: CFP Orange Bowl Picks & Odds, Jan. 9

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: January 9, 2025 4:30 PM EST • 4 min 17 sec read.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard and Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love celebrate a touchdown as we make our Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction for tonight's Orange Bowl.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) celebrate a touchdown. Photo by Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

One team will book its place in the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship tonight when the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions meet in the Orange Bowl. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

Our Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction focuses on the underdog in this spot, and our best bet is a total pick siding with the betting public. Our best college football betting sites list the Fighting Irish as 1.5-point favorites.

Marcus Freeman's men are the favorites by our Notre Dame vs. Penn State early picks and odds. Will the lower-seeded squad's Cinderella run end here, or will the Fighting Irish return to the title for the first time since 2013?

Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction & best pick: CFP Orange Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Penn State +2.5 () vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Notre Dame-Penn State Under 45.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Notre Dame vs. Penn State ATS prediction

Penn State to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Where are the "James Franklin can't win big games" folks now? Have they crawled back into their holes? Franklin has his Nittany Lions knocking on the door of the national championship after two dominant wins in the early round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Penn State thrashed SMU and Boise State by a combined score of 69-24.

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It goes without saying that the Nittany Lions have been in control since the opening kickoff of the first round.

Thus proving the Nittany Lions' frontman can win big games; he just struggles to beat Michigan and Ohio State consistently, understandably so. Franklin's 101-41 record (.711 win percentage) is impressive as is, but he's 97-24 (.802) against any team not named the Wolverines or Buckeyes during his time in Happy Valley.

Offensive versatility

One of the other reasons I like Penn State to cover in this contest is because of the way Drew Allar is playing. He's limited the turnovers in his two playoff games and has spread the ball around efficiently.

That's not to say Riley Leonard hasn't, but Leonard's game relies more on his dual-threat ability. The Nittany Lions are surely going to try and limit Notre Dame's rushing attack, forcing Leonard to turn to the air to move the ball downfield. Abdul Carter and Co. wreak havoc for even the best offensive lines, Joe Moore Award semifinalists or not.

In an ugly, low-scoring affair - which I believe this will be - I'm siding with the team that has Kaytron Allen, Nick Singleton, Tyler Warren, and others on its depth chart. give Penn State a slight head-to-head advantage in this matchup. As such, I'll take the Nittany Lions with the points at our best sportsbooks any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Orange Bowl expert picks

Notre Dame vs. Penn State best pick

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Under 45.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While I'll happily play Penn State in an underdog spot, my favorite pick for this contest is the Under, and it comes from our College Football Playoff semifinal predictions. The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions boast two of the country's best defenses, evidenced by the fact that they've surrendered just 51 combined points through 16 quarters in the College Football Playoff.

Notre Dame and Penn State give up 13.6 and 15.8 points per contest, both top-five marks in the country. They've allowed 13.5 and 12 points per game this postseason, respectively, against the best competition they've faced throughout the campaign.

Tom Allen and Al Golden have their units playing their best football at the right time. They're the biggest reason I believe this game goes Under despite the total dropping three points throughout the week. The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have gone Under at a 16-13 clip this season, so we'll bet on this trend to continue in a battle between two run-heavy offenses.

BetMGM has the best price on the market for Under 45.5 at standard juice.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds movement

The Over/Under in the Orange Bowl has steadily dropped throughout the week. The line at BetMGM opened at 50.5 but is down to 44.5 in the hours leading up to kickoff with 76% of bets at the sportsbook on the Under, according to .

The line opened up at Notre Dame -1.5 and even reached as high as -2.5 earlier this week. However, since news broke of a flu outbreak in the Fighting Irish's locker room, the spread has been dropping. Notre Dame is now just a 1-point favorite as tonight's kickoff nears.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State live odds

Notre Dame vs. Penn State opening odds:

  • Notre Dame: -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Penn State: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Notre Dame vs. Penn State injuries

Orange Bowl game info

  • When: Thursday, Jan. 9
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 52 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph N

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the 520ccc.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC. Sports betting has not yet been legalized in Gabe's home state of Texas, so he frequently takes trips to Louisiana when he has the itch to place futures. Outside of work, Gabe considers himself an old head as he used an AOL email account until 2022 and still collects vinyl records.