Notre Dame vs. Penn State Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: CFP Orange Bowl
Last Updated: January 9, 2025 6:00 AM EST • 4 min 18 sec read.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions meet at the Orange Bowl on Thursday in the first CFP semifinal. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla, is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
My Notre Dame vs. Penn State player prop picks look at who will shine (or not) in the quest to punch the first ticket to the College Football Playoff National Championship. Notre Dame is a 2.5-point favorite with an O/U ranging from 44.5 to 45.5 points.
- Notre Dame is 6-0 vs. ranked teams (its most such wins in a season since 1989)
- Notre Dame would set a school record with 14 wins with a victory over Penn State
- The Nittany Lions are looking for their first national championship appearance since the BCS/CFP era started
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State college football player prop picks: CFP Orange Bowl
College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
- Tyler Warren touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐
- Riley Leonard prop pick: Under 47.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐
- Jeremiyah Love prop pick: Under 46.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Notre Dame vs. Penn State touchdown prediction
Tyler Warren anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐
Best odds: +100 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 50.00%
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Notre Dame loves to play man coverage as its base defense more often than zone, and arguably, no player (not just tight end) is more of a mismatch in the country than Warren.
The Fighting Irish do not necessarily have the linebacking corps to match Warren's size or speed, so Marcus Freeman's most logical move is to bring Xavier Watts up from the safety spot to defend the All-American tight end.
However, Watts went to the medical tent late in the game against Georgia with a shoulder injury. Freeman may not want to use Watts in man coverage often because it leaves the team susceptible on the back end.
Warren was named the Offensive MVP of the Fiesta Bowl after catching six passes for 63 yards and two touchdowns. His 13-yard touchdown reception was his 98th catch of the season, which broke the Penn State single-season record previously held by Allen Robinson (97 in 2013).
Warren has at least one touchdown in two of the last four games and three of the last six. His anytime touchdown odds are certainly worth a play at this 50% implied probability, considering his implied probability is as high as 58.85% through Caesars’ -143 odds.
Best Notre Dame vs. Penn State prop picks
Riley Leonard Under 47.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%
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Leonard torched Georgia's defense for 80 rushing yards. He has now gone over this projected total in two of the last three games.
However, the Bulldogs' defense was susceptible to running quarterbacks all season, so I am not buying into this inflated line for this matchup against Penn State.
The Nittany Lions were one of three FBS teams to not allow a rushing touchdown by a quarterback this season. And they allowed 134 opposing quarterback rushing yards (excluding sacks), which were 11th-fewest among FBS teams.
Caesars is the only top sports betting site where one can back the Under of 47.5 rushing yards at less than -114 odds. Through its -109 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.17.
Jeremiyah Love Under 46.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%
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How healthy is Love after he reportedly finished the Georgia game with a brace on his injured knee? If this were a regular season game, we might be talking about him getting a much-needed week off, especially since he was not 100% after the Indiana game.
The fact that this line has plummeted as low as 37.5 at FanDuel suggests that Love will cede a ton of carries to Jadarian Price, who already had 110 carries to Love's 148 this season.
Even if Love were completely healthy, he would likely find it difficult sledding against a Penn State rush defense that allows 101 rush yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush while giving up a total of just eight rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Nittany Lions had a fantastic game plan in holding Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry. I look for them to similarly stack the box and dare Leonard to beat them with his arm.
Orange Bowl live odds & game info
- When: Thursday, Jan. 9
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 49 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph NNE
- Favorite: Notre Dame -2 (-110 via BetMGM)
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