Notre Dame vs. Penn State Expert Picks: Player Props, Touchdown Predictions & More
Last Updated: January 9, 2025 2:01 PM EST • 4 min 4 sec read.
Only four teams remain in the College Football Playoff semifinals, which kick off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1) facing the Penn State Nittany Lions at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Notre Dame is the betting favorite to win across our best college football betting sites, and we've rounded up our best Notre Dame vs. Penn State expert picks featuring a game prediction, player props, and touchdown scorer predictions for today's CFP semifinal.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State expert picks: CFP Orange Bowl
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Against the spread pick: Penn State +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Jeremiyah Love Under 46.5 rushing yards (-125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Touchdown scorer prediction: Riley Leonard to score a touchdown (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don't miss Brenden Schaeffer's Notre Dame vs. Penn State parlay picks for a shot at a +575 payday!
Best Notre Dame vs. Penn State picks
Penn State to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Where are the "James Franklin can't win big games" folks now? Have they crawled back into their holes? Franklin has his Nittany Lions knocking on the door of the national championship after two dominant wins in the early round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. Penn State thrashed SMU and Boise State by a combined score of 69-24.
It goes without saying that the Nittany Lions have been in control since the opening kickoff of the first round.
Thus proving the Nittany Lions' frontman can win big games; he just struggles to beat Michigan and Ohio State consistently, understandably so. Franklin's 101-41 record (.711 win percentage) is impressive as is, but he's 97-24 (.802) against any team not named the Wolverines or Buckeyes during his time in Happy Valley.
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Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction made by Gabe Henderson.
Jeremiyah Love Under 46.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 55.56%
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How healthy is Love after he reportedly finished the Georgia game with a brace on his injured knee? If this were a regular-season game, we might be talking about him getting a much-needed week off, especially since he was not 100% after the Indiana game.
The fact that this line has plummeted as low as 37.5 at FanDuel suggests that Love will cede a ton of carries to Jadarian Price, who already had 110 carries to Love's 148 this season.
Even if Love were completely healthy, he would likely find it difficult sledding against a Penn State rush defense that allows 101 rush yards per game and 3.1 yards per rush while giving up a total of just eight rushing touchdowns on the season.
The Nittany Lions had a fantastic game plan in holding Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry. I look for them to similarly stack the box and dare QB Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State player prop picks made by Mike Spector.
Riley Leonard to score a touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 48.78%
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Leonard's passing numbers look underwhelming at first glance. One wouldn't traditionally expect the starting quarterback of a semifinalist to have 2,383 yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions. However, when added to his rushing stats, the full picture is revealed.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has tapped into Leonard's rushing potential, as he did with last year's Heisman Trophy winner, Jayden Daniels, at LSU. Leonard's rushed for 831 yards and, more importantly, 15 touchdowns this season. He's found the end zone in 10 of his 14 games on the ground, which translates to a 71.43% clip.
Despite scoring touchdowns at an elite rate, the best sportsbooks give Leonard just a 51.22% implied probability of finding pay dirt in the Orange Bowl.
The Notre Dame signal-caller has gone back-to-back games without a rushing touchdown just once this season, so we'll take a flier (-105) on him to avoid that fate against Penn State.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State anytime touchdown scorer predictions made by Gabe Henderson.
Orange Bowl expert picks
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State prediction
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State player prop picks
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State parlay picks
- Notre Dame vs. Penn State touchdown predictions
CFP Orange Bowl game info
- When: Friday, Jan. 9
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: Indoors
- Favorite: Notre Dame -1 (-110 via BetMGM)
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