Skip to main content

Notre Dame vs. Navy Prediction, Picks & Odds Today: Week 9

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: October 26, 2024 10:33 AM EDT • 4 min 5 sec read.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love celebrates after a touchdown against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets as we look at our Notre Dame vs. Navy prediction.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love celebrates after a touchdown against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Photo by Brett Davis/Imagn Images.

A key matchup between a top-ranked service academy and a top-12 opponent takes place Saturday at noon ET from MetLife Stadium on ABC/ESPN+.

The No. 12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who are clinging to a spot in the college football championship odds, square off with the No. 24 Navy Midshipmen.

Notre Dame comes into the clash as the 13.5-point favorite through most of our best college football betting sites, with a strong defense and quarterback Riley Leonard leading the way. Meanwhile, Navy is undefeated and has notched double-digit wins in each outing.

Best Notre Dame vs. Navy picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Notre Dame -13.5 ()  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet:  Under 51.5 Total Points (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Notre Dame vs. Navy against the spread prediction: Week 9

Notre Dame to cover the spread: -13.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Notre Dame vs. Navy opening odds:

  • Notre Dame: 17 ()
  • Navy: +17 (-110 via DraftKings)

The spread opened with Notre Dame at -17, but now it’s moved down to -13.5 on at several of our best sportsbooks, with Navy +14 currently available on Caesars and DraftKings. 

Strength of schedule disparity

Notre Dame suffered one of the worst losses of any top-25 ranked FBS team in 2024, losing 16-14 at home to Northern Illinois in Week 2.

Since that loss, the Fighting Irish have won five consecutive games, including beating Louisville by seven and Georgia Tech by 18 points on another neutral site in Week 8.

Notre Dame’s Week 1 win on the road at Texas A&M is undoubtedly its signature victory since the Aggies are currently No. 14 and have won six straight games. This is why Notre Dame’s strength of schedule is 22nd out of 134 FBS programs. 

Navy’s schedule, through no fault of its own, has been among the easiest in terms of difficulty, ranking 128th. The Midshipmen’s biggest win came against 6-1 Memphis of the American conference, beating the Tigers 56-44 in Week 4.

Establishing the run

Notre Dame tends to funnel its offense through the run game, rotating between QB Riley Leonard and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Leonard and Love have 75 or more carries through seven games, running behind one of the nation’s best offensive line units. 

Navy’s defense hasn’t been tested much up to this point, but it did allow Memphis to average 7.2 YPC with four rushing touchdowns. Rob Paul is expecting Leonard to score at least two as part of his college football Week 9 expert picks.

Even a one-win UAB offense managed 4.5 YPC, so expect the Fighting Irish to play bully ball, just like they did against Georgia Tech, logging between 36 and 45 carries with roughly 5.0 YPC and several touchdowns on the ground. 

Navy is also a run-centric team, but Notre Dame’s run defense is elite, allowing 3.3 YPC and three total rushing touchdowns through seven games. The Midshipmen will encounter too much resistance and be forced to throw the ball.

Navy has completed 60 percent or less of its pass attempts in four of six games, meaning points will be at a premium. Notre Dame should be able to cover as a two-touchdown favorite due to its ability to establish the run and stop the run on defense.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Up To $1,500 Back In Bonus Bets

Bonus bets will expire in 7 days. One new customer offer only. Additional terms and conditions apply.

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Notre Dame vs. Navy best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Under 51.5 Total Points  (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 

Navy is 6-0 to the Over in 2024, but that will change on Saturday at MetLife Stadium.

Notre Dame’s defense has played much better opposition and held them in check, which is why the Fighting Irish are ranked fifth in points allowed (11.9) entering Week 9, making under 51.5 total points the best bet to place in this matchup.

Defensive superiority

I don't think Navy will cover +13.5, but its defense has done enough throughout the year to warrant some respect. The Midshipmen have held opponents to a 56.5 percent completion rate this season, with only one rushing touchdown in their last three games. 

Since Week 1, Navy hasn’t committed a single turnover while forcing eight, including five last week against Charlotte, to stay ahead of schedule and win the turnover margin. 

Notre Dame’s defense is also good at forcing turnovers, while both run defenses are stout up front. Since both offenses like to chew the clock and grind the field with long possessions, scoring opportunities should be reduced. 

Sure, there is always the potential for a few explosive plays, but we just saw Notre Dame dominate a good Georgia Tech running game, holding them to 13 points while scoring 31. 

I'm betting Under 51.5 total points in a defensive-oriented game that will likely finish with 80 combined carries. Expect Notre Dame to win this game 27-14 or 35-13, cashing our best bet at Under 51.5 total points as part of your college football Week 9 predictions. 

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Notre Dame vs. Navy odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Notre Dame vs. Navy game info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 26
  • Kickoff: Noon p.m. ET
  • Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
  • How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 57 degrees, 12 mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
  • Favorite: Notre Dame -13.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission

Related pages

Written By:
Matt MacKay
Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.