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Notre Dame vs. Georgia Prediction & Picks: CFP Sugar Bowl Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 31, 2024 2:54 PM EST • 4 min 38 sec read.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love celebrate as we make our best Notre Dame vs. Georgia CFP Sugar Bowl prediction.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love celebrate a touchdown. Photo by Christine Tannous / IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

Two of college football’s most storied programs meet for the right to advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals, as the Georgia Bulldogs are short favorites over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Sugar Bowl. Kickoff from Caesars Superdome in New Orleans is set for 8:45 p.m. ET (ESPN) on New Year's Day.

  • Georgia’s Gunner Stockton makes his first start at quarterback in place of the injured Carson Beck
  • Notre Dame has won 11 consecutive games, with 10 of those by double-digits
  • The Bulldogs lead the all-time series 3-0 against the Fighting Irish, with the last meeting coming in 2019

Our Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction for the Sugar Bowl expects the Bulldogs to limit the deep passing game of the Fighting Irish in a tight battle.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction & best pick: CFP Sugar Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Georgia -1 () vs. Notre Dame ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Riley Leonard longest pass completion Under 31.5 yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Notre Dame vs. Georgia ATS prediction

Georgia to cover the spread: -1 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Don’t underestimate Gunner Stockton

The low point spread is a big product of the injury to Georgia starting QB Carson Beck, as new Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton has only been on the field for 86 snaps this season. Its a major factor as to why the Bulldogs are so low on the college football championship odds.

However, Stockton calmly completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards in the second half of the team’s SEC Championship win over Texas. And now he's benefitted from having three-plus weeks to bring him up to speed and to get reps with the starters.

However, to take pressure off Stockton, Georgia has to feel confident in a rejuvenated running game that saw Trevor Etiennne run for 94 yards and two touchdowns against Texas.

Even the Bulldogs’ pass protection stepped up in a major way. The offensive line entered the SEC Championship with 19 pressures allowed in its three previous games (one was against Tennessee), improving upon the 37 pressures they allowed in the three games prior.

Georgia’s solid run defense

This year’s Bulldogs run defense may not be as feared as it has been in the past, as they have allowed a 100-yard rusher in four games and allowed 170-plus rushing yards or more five times. 

However, Georgia’s run defense steps up in the biggest spots. Texas ran for 292 yards in the first round of the CFP (the third-most by an SEC team in a playoff game), but Georgia held the Longhorns to 1.1 yards per rush on 55 combined rushes the two times they have played them.

Notre Dame has struggled to throw the ball downfield all season. And while Jeremiyah Love is the only FBS running back with a rushing touchdown in every game this season, the Fighting Irish will struggle to move the football if Georgia’s elite run defense shows up again.

Notre Dame’s key defensive injury

Notre Dame’s defense was dealt a huge blow when it was determined that lineman Rylie Mills would miss the remainder of the playoffs. 

Mills’ 7.5 sacks were the most of any active Fighting Irish player, and his absence leaves an even bigger void in a front seven that registered just 61 tackles for loss this season.

Those willing to lay an extra half-point at -1.5 can get -105 odds at several of our best sports betting apps, but I prefer laying -1 while paying the standard -110 juice.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Riley Leonard longest pass completion Under 31.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Notre Dame is not known for its explosive downfield passing attack, as Riley Leonard has stayed under this projected total in four of the last five games.

Leonard now faces a Georgia defense that entered the SEC Championship leading the nation in Explosiveness allowed. 

The Bulldogs did allow nine explosive plays on 38 pass attempts against Georgia Tech to end the regular season, and they are likely to stack the box and force Notre Dame to take shots downfield. 

However, given that Leonard finished eight games with his longest pass going for 28 or fewer yards, this value on an O/U of 31.5 yards is too good to pass up. Through bet365’s -115 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.

College Football Playoff expert picks & CFP predictions

Notre Dame vs. Georgia odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Notre Dame vs. Georgia live odds

Notre Dame vs. Georgia opening odds:

  • Notre Dame +1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Georgia -1.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Notre Dame vs. Georgia injuries

CFP Sugar Bowl game info

  • When: Wednesday, Jan. 1
  • Kickoff: 8:45 p.m. ET
  • Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Georgia -1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”