Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Prediction & Picks: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Odds

The 7-5 Northern Illinois Huskies meet the 6-6 Fresno State Bulldogs on the blue turf in Boise at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Monday at 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

• Both teams will have different starting quarterbacks after each lost theirs to the transfer portal
• Northern Illinois is playing in its third bowl game in the last four years, going 1-1 in the previous two
• Fresno State lost three of its final four games after starting 5-3

Our Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State prediction for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Albertsons Stadium backs the underdogs, as long as we are getting the key number on the point spread.

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Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State prediction & best pick: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Fresno State +3 () vs. Northern Illinois ⭐⭐
• My best pick: Gavin Williams to score a touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State ATS prediction

Fresno State to cover the spread: +3 ⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

Fresno State has preparation advantage

Both Huskies starting quarterback Ethan Hampton and Fresno State’s Mikey Keene have entered the transfer portal, which means both teams’ offenses will look quite different in this matchup.

Northern Illinois got one start (and five other games worth of experience) out of backup quarterback Josh Holst, who completed only 58% of his passes and did not have a single touchdown pass in 81 attempts.

While many will view it as an advantage that Holst got so many game reps this year compared to Fresno State’s backups who threw eight combined passes, it also means the Bulldogs have a lot more tape on Holst with which to prepare.

Fresno State is better than its record

Many bettors place bowl wagers on how a team finished the regular season, guessing at what the team’s motivation level may be entering the matchup.

Fresno State lost three of its final four games but was ahead at halftime in all three of those losses to Hawaii, Air Force, and UCLA, and it lost the Hawaii game on a touchdown with 15 seconds to go.

The Bulldogs finished the regular season with a No. 82 Offensive SP+ rating, while NIU’s Offensive SP+ ranking was 114th. That should make it easier to deal with losing five defensive starters to the transfer portal before this contest.

Fading MAC teams in bowls

Over the last 20 years, no conference has a worse ATS record in bowl games than the MAC, as its teams are 42-52-5 ATS. In that same span, Mountain West teams trail only the SEC in terms of ATS records, going 56-50-1.

Things have changed over the last five years, with MAC schools going a much better 17-10-2 ATS in bowl games. But the Mountain West is not far behind in that smaller sample size, with a 15-14-1 ATS record.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites to offer a point spread below the key number of three (+2.5), but I am taking advantage of the full three points at standard -110 odds at DraftKings. A $10 winning wager for a Bulldogs cover would pay out $19.09.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Gavin Williams to score a touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 48.78%

Huskies head coach Thomas Hammock will likely prefer nothing more than to make this a ground-and-pound game, especially with an inexperienced quarterback under center.

Northern Illinois’ offensive line finished in the top 20 in Line Yards. And the Bulldogs are without both of their starting defensive tackles and linebacker Phoenix Jackson, who was fourth on the team in tackles.

I would not put anyone off backing Gavin Williams’ Over on rushing attempts when that prop becomes available. But I expect his heavy volume will pay off in a touchdown and believe his implied probability should be 50% or better for him to find the end zone.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State live odds

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State opening odds:

• Northern Illinois: -1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Fresno State: +1.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State injuries

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl game info

• When: Monday, Dec. 23
• Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET 
• Where: Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 49 degrees, 3% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph E
• Favorite: Northern Illinois -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

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