College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 9: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week
Last Updated: October 23, 2024 11:17 AM EDT • 4 min read.
For the third time this season, a different AP No. 1 team lost last week, and college football underdogs were barking both in top-25 matchups and games not involving teams in the AP poll.
- Texas’ 15-point home loss was the worst by a No. 1 team since Pittsburgh in 1982
- Not only did the No. 1 team in the FBS lose last week, but so did the top-ranked teams in the FCS and Division II
- Tennessee and Illinois secured upsets of AP top 25 teams as home underdogs last week
As part of our college football Week 9 predictions, our college football upset picks fade a ranked team in a road matchup and expect a Big 12 team to secure a road upset after coming close to doing so last week.
College football upset picks: Week 9
College football odds as of Wednesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
- UNLV () vs. Boise State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Rice () at UConn ⭐⭐⭐
- Oklahoma State (+210 via bet365) at Baylor ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Week 9 upset predictions
College football picks made Wednesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
UNLV (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
UNLV has righted the ship after losing its only game at home to Syracuse three weeks ago with consecutive road wins against Utah State and Oregon State. And with how well the Rebels held up against the Beavers’ prolific rushing attack last week, that bodes well for their chances of success when facing Heisman Trophy odds front-runner Ashton Jeanty.
Entering last week’s game, Oregon State was averaging the sixth-most yards per game on the ground (256.0) and 5.3 yards per carry. However, the Rebels held the Beavers well below their season averages with 137 rushing yards on 3.7 yards per carry.
UNLV improved upon its defensive metrics, as it entered last week ranked 34th in rush success and 28th in havoc. But what will pay the biggest dividend is a top-25 ranking in quality drives allowed when facing a Boise State offense that ranks fourth in the country in total offense (523.0 yards per game).
UNLV has as short as +130 moneyline odds at both FanDuel and DraftKings, so my preferred option of our best sports betting sites for the best value is BetMGM. If the Rebels pull the outright upset, a $10 winning wager would net $14 in profit.
Best odds: +140 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 41.67%
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Rice (+200) ⭐⭐⭐
Rice is 1-4 in its last five games. And though it may not believe in moral victories, it was able to stay within two touchdowns of Tulane (the two teams were tied entering the fourth quarter), arguably the best team in the AAC, despite committing five turnovers, one of which led directly to seven points for the Green Wave.
UConn opened as a small one-point favorite over Wake Forest last week, but that line jumped the fence quickly and the Huskies kicked off as three-point underdogs.
Our best sports betting apps were proven correct for that line movement, as a UConn offense that entered averaging 35.8 points per game and 6.1 yards per play scored just 20 points and averaged 4.7 yards per play in a loss to Wake Forest.
UConn beat Rice 38-31 on the road as a 10-point underdog last season, but I expect the Owls to exact revenge with better ball security, especially after out-gaining Tulane by 37 yards last week.
All of our other best sportsbooks offer Rice at +196 or shorter, so bet365 is the best sportsbook for underdog backers.
Best odds: +200 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.33%
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Oklahoma State (+210) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oklahoma State’s 3-4 start (it has suffered four straight losses) must be seen as a huge disappointment after being ranked No. 17 in the AP preseason poll. However, the Cowboys finally got their running game going last week, and that provides optimism that they can knock off Baylor in this road contest.
Last year’s Doak Walker Award winner, Ollie Gordon II, is coming off his best game since the season opener. Against a stout BYU defense last week, Gordon ran for 107 yards and two touchdowns and a season-high 6.7 yards per carry.
Oklahoma State went ahead 35-31 with 1:13 left on the road against No. 13 BYU last week, but its defense allowed a touchdown with 10 seconds left to lose the game.
Alan Bowman is back as the starting quarterback after Garret Rangel exited last week with an upper body injury, and Bowman went 2-1 SU against AP top-25 teams last year.
This is a four-star play, as Baylor’s resume is not impressive with two of its three wins coming against an FCS opponent and a win over a 1-6 Air Force team.
There is a big 22-cent gap between FanDuel’s +188 moneyline odds and the +210 found at bet365. Through bet365’s +210 odds, a $10 winning wager would pay out $31.
Best odds: +210 via bet365 | Implied probability: 32.26%
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Mike Spector