College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 12: 3 Underdogs to Bet This Week

With just three weeks remaining in the college football regular season, teams will look to avoid the dubious upset as they continue to jockey for bowl eligibility or berths in conference championship games.

• Entering last week, road underdogs were covering at a profitable 54% rate in the first halves of games over the last three seasons
• Georgia Tech secured the biggest upset of the week last week, improving to 4-1 SU at home against teams over .500 under head coach Brent Key and denying Miami its first 10-0 start since 2017
• Throw out the rankings in the Missouri-South Carolina game, as the unranked Gamecocks are 12.5-point home favorites against the No. 24 Tigers

Our college football upset picks have gone a profitable 3-3 over the last two weeks.

Week 12’s trio of upset picks feature two home ‘dogs (one of which spent time in the AP top 25 this year), and calls for a road upset of one of FBS’s remaining four undefeated teams. We're offering this and more as part of our college football Week 12 predictions.

College football upset picks: Week 12

College football odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Navy () vs. Tulane ⭐⭐⭐
• West Virginia () vs. Baylor ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Kansas () at BYU ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 12 upset predictions

College football picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Navy (+205) ⭐⭐⭐

This is one of Navy’s two remaining games against teams unbeaten in AAC play. While the Midshipmen’s 24-10 loss to Rice two weeks ago is inexcusable, it does feel that they are near-touchdown underdogs in this matchup merely as a punishment for that lone blemish on their record in league play.

Navy righted the ship with a dominant 28-7 road win at South Florida as a 4.5-point favorite. The Midshipmen ran for 321 yards and averaged 5.4 yards per carry against a Bulls defense that entered the week ranked in the top-17 nationally in Rush Success and Line Yards.

Navy has beaten Tulane in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings since 2015, and has won each of the last four matchups in Annapolis.

These +205 odds offered at Caesars are a great value, as it is the only one our best sports betting sites offering better than a price of +200. FanDuel is on the low end of this market at +188 (carrying a 34.72% implied probability), but a $10 winning wager at Caesars would net $20.50 in profits compared to $18.80 at FanDuel.

Best odds: +205 via Caesars | Implied probability: 32.79%

West Virginia (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

West Virginia and Baylor have identical 5-4 records, but the Mountaineers’ resume is better to this point, as all four of their losses have come against teams currently ranked in the AP top 25.

West Virginia has rebounded from a brutal opening seven-game schedule to win back-to-back games against Arizona and Cincinnati as +175 moneyline underdogs.

I expect the Mountaineers to complete a third straight upset, as they are not getting much love after needing two defensive scores to overcome being outgained 436-248 by Cincinnati last week.

Baylor benefits from having a bye last week, but it is still a team full of holes. The Bears entered their last game against TCU ranked 87th or worse in Rush Success and Quality Drives, and their leaky secondary ranked 125th in PFF’s Coverage grade.

There is a big 16-cent gap between FanDuel’s +114 odds and the +130 price offered at DraftKings. The next-closest competitor is bet365, whiich offers +125 odds to back the home underdogs.

Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%

Kansas (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is arguably no more curious line involving a ranked team this week than 9-0 BYU being just a 3.5-point favorite in Provo against a 3-6 Kansas team.

BYU was fortunate to escape last week with a road win at Utah, as the Utes’ game-clinching sack late in the fourth quarter was negated by a defensive penalty that kept the Cougars’ game-winning drive alive.

Kansas has won two of its last three games, including a nine-point victory over then-No. 17 Iowa State, and a two-point loss at a ranked Kansas State in a game it led with under two minutes to play.

The Jayhawks need to win out to be bowl eligible for a third straight year (would be the first time in program history). Their offense, which entered last week ranked in the top-three nationally in Line Yards and FInishing Drives, is built to pull off the road upset.

Of our three moneyline picks, this is the one where the best sports betting apps are most closely aligned, as Caesars and DraftKings also offer the same +130 price to back the Jayhawks.

Best odds: +130 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 43.48%

College football picks roundup: Week 12

• College football Week 12 ATS picks
• College football Week 12 expert picks
• College football Week 12 player props

College football betting odds pages

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• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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