College Football Picks Against the Spread for Every Championship Week Game

There are nine conference title games this weekend, and many will massively influence the final College Football Playoff rankings that come out on Sunday, Dec. 8.

Our college football conference championship picks against the spread focus on all nine games.

• Army is getting the second-shortest Group of Five College Football Playoff odds, and it could get in if the Black Knights beat Tulane in the AAC Championship and Boise State loses to UNLV in the Mountain West
• Oregon leads the college football championship odds and takes on Penn State in the Big Ten Championship, with the No. 1 seed in the CFP on the line
• Once a Heisman Trophy odds contender, Cade Klubnik needs to lead Clemson to an upset of a surging SMU team if the Tigers want to get into the College Football Playoff

Our college football conference championship predictions highlight all nine title games this weekend, which include five  matchups.

College football ATS picks: Conference championship games

College football picks via DraftKings and subject to change; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My favorite ATS picks this week

College football picks as of Tuesday. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Western Kentucky (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville State 

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 51.22%

Teams rarely play in the regular-season finale before meeting the very next week in the conference championship game. But that's the case with the Conference USA Championship after Western Kentucky beat Jacksonville State 19-17 this past Saturday.

While the Gamecocks have been the most consistent team in the conference behind Rich Rodriguez's spread-option attack, starting QB Tyler Huff went down last week against the Hilltoppers.

With Huff's health in question (he's a game-time decision), Western Kentucky's passing attack should be able to keep this game close. Caden Veltkamp is the most consistent passer in the conference and has pushed WKU to ranking 63rd in . Jax State is just 97th by the same metric defensively.

Huff will at minimum be playing hurt with his ankle injury, and that opens the door for WKU to cover. If it does, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.

Boise State (-3.5) vs. UNLV

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 54.13%

The Rebels did a better job slowing down Ashton Jeanty than any other team in the country this season when Boise State played UNLV on Oct. 25. Yet Jeanty still ran for 128 yards (106 of which came after contact) while leading the Broncos to a cover.

That game was in Vegas, and this one will be on the "Smurf Turf" of Albertsons Stadium during what's going to be a chilly game Friday night. Jeanty is built for this matchup, and he's pushed the Broncos to ranking No. 2 in EPA per rush. He should run all over a defense that's just 62nd in .

While UNLV has been explosive with Hajj-Malik Williams and Ricky White on offense, Boise State's trench play is among the best in the Group of Five. The Broncos allowed the second-fewest points per game in the Mountain West this season (23.2).

Another Boise State cover against the Rebels pays an $8.47 profit on a $10 winning bet.

Army (+6.5) vs. Tulane

Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%

This line is a bit confusing given how poorly Tulane played last week against Memphis, and how impressive Army has been in every game against Group of Five opponents.

The Black Knights getting 6.5 points at home is too good to pass up when considering their offense is No. 11 in and No. 8 in EPA per pass. That's come thanks to QB Bryson Daily, who should run over a Green Wave defense that's been a little inconsistent against the run. It ranks 47th in EPA per rush.

And while Tulane's offense has produced bright moments, freshman QB Darian Mensah has logged just 12 big-time throws vs. 15 turnover-worthy plays this season, according to . Army's defense leads the AAC in interceptions (16) and is allowing the fewest yards per game in the conference (295.5).

If Jeff Monken's team can cover, a $10 bet pays an $8.93 profit. If the Black Knights win outright, the +190 moneyline odds at DraftKings pay a $19 profit on a $10 bet.

Arizona State (-2) vs. Iowa State 

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 52.38%

This is the toughest championship matchup to pick. These two teams are fairly evenly matched while playing for a playoff spot, so you know the intensity will be off the charts.

I lean toward Arizona State because of what the Sun Devils can do running the ball and stopping the run. With Cam Skattebo leading the way, ASU is 14th in EPA per rush and could cause issues for a Cyclones front that allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the Big 12 this season (173.7).

Plus, the Iowa State offense has been all over the place this campain. It's just 43rd in SP+, and now the school needs to take on an underrated ASU defense that's top 25 in both EPA per rush and dropback.

The Sun Devils are the best team ATS in the Power 4 this season (10-2), and I'm betting on them coming through again. If they do, a $10 wager pays a $9.09 profit.

Ohio (+2.5) vs. Miami (Ohio)

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%

No matter the outcome of this game, I'm expecting it to be a low-scoring fistfight that ends in a tight win for one of these MAC powers. If Miami (Ohio) wins, it will be the first time in over a decade that the MAC features a back-to-back champ. 

But I don't expect Ohio to make it easy. Anthony Tyus III and Parker Navarro lead an explosive rushing attack for the Bobcats, and they're 51st in EPA per rush this season.

Meanwhile, the RedHawks trot out one of the best defenses in the G5, but their offense has been struggling. It's just 100th in SP+ while the Bobcats' defense is 45th and allowing the 17th-fewest points per game in the country (18.7).

Between the rushing offense for Tim Albin's teams and hard-nosed defense, I think Ohio keeps it close, or even wins. If they cover, a $10 bet pays a $9.62 profit.

Georgia (+2.5) vs. Texas 

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 51.22%

This is another conference championship game that's a regular-season rematch after Georgia thumped Texas in Austin 30-15 on Oct. 19. A lot has happened since then, but the Longhorns still haven't really lived up to their billing as the No. 2 seed in the CFP.

This game will be a low-scoring clash since both of these defenses are loaded with NFL-caliber talent and rank among the top 15 in EPA per rush and dropback. However, the difference will once again be the way Georgia's pass-rushers impact Quinn Ewers.

Ewers accounted for zero big-time throws and a whopping seven turnover-worthy plays during the previous matchup. He's been leaving a lot to be desired since then too, with as many big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays (three) in his last three contests.

While Carson Beck is also known to throw an interception or three, I trust him more than Ewers in this matchup, and Georgia's offense ranks higher in SP+ (No. 4 vs. No. 7). If the Bulldogs cover against Texas again, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.

Marshall (+5.5) vs. Louisiana 

Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%

No team in the country covers the spread at a higher rate than Marshall. The Thundering Herd are 10-1-1 ATS this season while covering in 90.9% of their games, including four straight.

While Louisiana has been among the best Group of Five teams in the country and it's even earned a fringe playoff shot, the Ragin' Cajuns will struggle to slow Marshall's offense. Running back A.J. Turner is a breakout star and should dice up a Louisiana defense that's 104th in EPA per rush.

This game will be a bit of a shootout given how strong Louisiana's passing offense has been this season, but the best player taking the field for either team is easily Mike Green. The Thundering Herd's star pass-rusher leads the country in pressures (60), and he can take over a game.

If Charles Huff's team continues to make Marshall's administration look silly for wanting to move on from this coaching staff, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.

Oregon (-3.5) vs. Penn State 

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 52.38%

Most expected this to be a rematch of Oregon's one-point win over Ohio State. Instead, the Ducks get an opponent that's proven repeatedly it's not ready for significant moments.

I'm all in on Dan Lanning's squad taking care of business, even with how ferocious the Nittany Lions' defense has been this season. Penn State should struggle against Dillon Gabriel, Jordan James and Co., and an offense that's top seven in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback.

The larger mismatch is on the other side of the ball, where Penn State is 12th in SP+ on offense and QB Drew Allar has been abysmal against ranked opponents. Allar accounted for zero big-time throws, zero touchdowns, and an interception over two games against top-25 teams, all while averaging just 140.5 passing yards. 

Trust a Ducks defense that's fifth in EPA per dropback to be the difference. If Lanning's team comes through, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

SMU (-2.5) vs. Clemson 

Best odds: -108 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.92%

Clemson is lucky to be playing in the ACC Championship and still hold a shot at the College Football Playoff. The Tigers just lost 17-14 at home in the Palmetto Bowl against South Carolina and have been outscored 84-83 in their last four FBS games.

Meanwhile, SMU is surging and is 7-2 ATS since losing to BYU on Sept. 6. The Mustangs boast an offense that's thriving with Kevin Jennings and Brashard Smith. The unit ranks fifth in SP+, and it could expose a Tigers defense that's outside the top 25 in both EPA per rush and dropback.

And for as good as Klubnik has been at times this season, SMU fields arguably the ACC's best defense. It's allowing the fewest points per game in the conference (19.8), the second-fewest yards (326.1), and is top 14 in the country in both EPA per rush and dropback.

SMU should be at least a 4-point favorite, as Dabo Swinney's team is getting far too much respect. But the Mustangs only need to notch a three-point win for a $10 bet to pay $9.26 in profit.

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