College Football Best Bets Week 9: Defensive Struggle In Tuscaloosa

Week 9 of college football begins with the fourth different AP No. 1 ranked team as upsets continue to happen and the College Football Playoff picture changes weekly.

• Oregon plays its first game as No. 1 in the AP Poll since 2012, and gets a tough test in No. 20 Illinois
• Vanderbilt, Army, and Navy are all ranked for the first time since 1958, and the two teams in action this week are double-digit underdogs
• Alabama has gone 207 straight games without suffering back-to-back losses, the second-longest streak by any program in the AP Poll era 

As we continue our college football predictions, our college football best bets for Week 9 involve game picks for two ranked versus ranked matchups and fade the passing game and running attack from two teams facing top-18 opponents.

Best college football bets for Week 9

College football odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Jackson Arnold longest pass completion Under 34.5 yards () vs. Ole Miss  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tawee Walker Under 75.5 rushing yards () vs. Penn State  ⭐⭐⭐
• Navy +13.5 () vs. Notre Dame  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Missouri-Alabama Under 51.5 ()  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Week 9 college football odds & schedule

(Odds via FanDuel)

• Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. Navy (+12.5), Saturday at noon ET
• Oklahoma (+20.5) vs. Ole Miss (-20.5), Saturday at noon ET
• Illinois (+21.5) vs. Oregon (-21.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Missouri (+16.5) vs. Alabama (-16.5), Saturday at 3:30 p.m.ET
• Texas (-18.5) vs. Vanderbilt (+18.5), Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET
• Penn State (-6.5) vs. Wisconsin (+6.5), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET
• LSU (+2.5) vs. Texas A&M (-2.5), Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET

College football props Week 9

College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jackson Arnold longest pass completion Under 34.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Oklahoma has made a lot of wholesale changes to its offense this week. The Sooners are going back to Jackson Arnold as its starting quarterback after not being happy with the results Michael Hawkins Jr. produced, and they named Joe Jon Finley offensive coordinator.

Oklahoma ranks 111th in Total QBR, as Arnold has a 35.7 Total QBR while Hawkins stands at 45.6. And conference play has been the Sooners’ undoing, averaging an SEC-low 13.5 points in league play, down from a 33.7 scoring average in non-conference games.

This is a four-star play, as the Sooners’ leaky offensive line does not allow enough protection for big plays to happen. 

Their offensive line has allowed 29 sacks, tied for the fifth-most through seven games by an SEC team over the last 30 seasons. And Oklahoma’s 16 plays of 20-plus yards are the second-fewest among all FBS teams.

Tawee Walker Under 75.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Wisconsin would love to run the ball plenty if it stays close against Penn State. The problem is that the Nittany Lions’ defensive line is the best that the Badgers have seen this season, and their running game struggled mightily against the other top defense they faced.

Walker has taken over the featured back role, as his 104 carries trump Chez Mellusi’s 56 carries this season. Walker has averaged 139.3 yards on the ground over the last three weeks, but prior to that had faced two ranked teams (USC and Alabama), and was held to 81 combined yards on 23 carries.

Penn State’s defense allows just 3.2 yards per carry and ranks in the top three nationally in Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate. And since the Badgers lost starting quarterback Tyler Van Dyke for the season, backup Braedyn Locke has not done much with his arm (65.3 PFF passing grade) to make opposing defenses respect Wisconsin’s passing attack.

The Under is juiced slightly higher to -115 at Caesars, so I am taking advantage of the best number at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would net $8.77 in profits.

College football game predictions Week 9

Navy +13.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

Notre Dame is 11-1 SU in its last 12 meetings with Navy and has won each of the last seven neutral site games as double-digit favorites against the Midshipmen. However, Navy covered the spread in three of those games, and this version of the Midshipmen differs from any we have seen.

While the triple-option is still a staple of the Navy offense, it has utilized the pass much more this year. The Midshipmen have the nation’s best Passing EPA per play, and their passing attack has helped them on their way to the seventh-best offensive success rate in the country.

Navy is one of two teams left in the country that is undefeated to the Over (6-0). While it does not figure to provide much resistance against the Fighting Irish running game, its ability to limit possessions while scoring efficiently in its own right should allow it to keep this a competitive game.

This line has moved 1.5 points from +12 at DraftKings in the last 24 hours. I would not put anyone off waiting to see if they can get two touchdowns with the Midshipmen, but I am content with backing them at +13.5, as most of our other best sportsbooks are at +12.5 or +13.

Missouri-Alabama Under 51.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Alabama is not the dominant home team it was under Nick Saban. It has won consecutive home games by seven or fewer points and failed to cover the spread in three straight at home for the first time in seven seasons.

While the Crimson Tide’s ATS struggles had me thinking heavily about backing Missouri’s point spread, I instead expect the Tigers defense to continue to play at the level they have played all season.

Missouri has allowed 273 total yards per game, which ranks third in the SEC and ninth nationally. It faces Jalen Milroe, who is coming off his second-lowest yards per attempt average in a start last week against Tennessee.

Milroe went 7-of-19 for 42 yards and threw an interception while taking three sacks on 26 dropbacks when pressured last week. Alabama’s offensive line issues were a big reason why Milroe had a career-high 20 incompletions and tied its lowest point total (17) over the last five seasons.

This is a four-star play, as Missouri quarterback Brady Cook could also be hampered by an ankle injury that forced him to leave last week’s game against Auburn for a short period. And Tigers leading rusher Nate Noel is out as he deals with a foot injury.

Several of the sites with the best sportsbook promos offer a total a half-point lower at 51, so I do not mind paying up slightly for the -115 juice on the higher total. A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.70.

College football picks roundup: Week 9

• College football Week 9 ATS picks
• College football Week 9 upset picks
• College football Week 9 expert picks
• College football Week 9 player props

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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