Mississippi State vs. Texas Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 5

The Texas Longhorns are massive favorites in their SEC opener against Mississippi State this week despite their starting quarterback being questionable for the game.

• Heisman hopeful Quinn Ewers is questionable with an oblique injury
• Texas is the biggest favorite among all SEC predictions for Week 5
• The Longhorns are atop the College Football Playoff odds entering this week

As part of our college football Week 5 predictions, our Mississippi State vs. Texas prediction expects the Bulldogs to cover in what should be a lookahead spot for the Longhorns.

Best Mississippi State vs. Texas picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Mississippi State +38.5 () vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐
• Team prop pick: Texas team total Under 50.5 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mississippi State vs. Texas against the spread prediction: Week 5

Mississippi State to cover the spread: +38.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Mississippi State vs. Texas opening odds:

• Mississippi State: +38.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Texas: -38.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

There is a big one-point gap between our best sports betting sites with regard to the point spread, as FanDuel is the only one offering a line as low as -37.5.

The line did not budge much earlier in the week, likely because of the uncertainty surrounding Ewers’ playing status. However, with the line moving in the underdog’s favor, that suggests we should expect Arch Manning under center for Texas.

Fading Texas’ perfect start

The start to the season could not have gone much better for the Longhorns, who are 4-0 SU and ATS. Their dominance, including a big road win at Michigan, is a big reason they have vaulted from preseason No. 4 to the top spot in the AP poll.

This is the first time Texas has won and covered each of its first four games in 16 seasons, and its plus-168 point differential is the school’s best through the first four games of a season since 1977, according to ESPN.

Conversely, Mississippi State has not been this big of an underdog since at least 1990. Though the Bulldogs are deserving of being more than five-touchdown underdogs after a 1-3 start, this is a contrarian play knowing the Longhorns’ reputation is at a high right now.

Longhorns in a lookahead spot

This is the last time opponents will get game film against Texas, as following a bye week next week, the Longhorns play their two toughest remaining games (the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma and a home game against Georgia).

Though many coaches would see the bye week ahead as an opportunity to lay it all on the line knowing rest is ahead, I envision Steve Sarkisian and the Texas coaching staff using the latter parts of this game as an opportunity to bring along younger and more inexperienced players, knowing its depth will likely be tested as the season wears on.

Texas’ quarterback situation is murky

As of this writing, there's no news about Ewers’ playing status as he continues to recover from an oblique injury. There hasn't been a whole lot of drop-off from a points perspective when Manning has been under center, but he's clearly not as polished as Ewers in other areas.

Though Texas has pushed the ball downfield vertically more under Manning, given his 12.3 yards per attempt, Ewers also has completed 73.4% of his passes, while Manning is at a 61.7% completion percentage. In addition, Manning has proved more prone to turnovers, as he has the same number of interceptions (two) as Ewers but with 32 fewer pass attempts.

Not only is BetMGM offering the best number for Mississippi State backers, but it is the only one of our best sports betting apps with a spread of -38.5 charging less than the standard -110 juice. A winning $10 wager at its -105 odds would pay out $19.52.

For those buying into Texas' hot start, we highlighted two other ways to bet the Longhorns in our Week 5 college football expert picks.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 51.22%

Mississippi State vs. Texas prop pick for Week 5

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Texas team total Under 50.5 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas has scored 50-plus points in four straight home games, the second-longest streak in program history. But with games against Oklahoma and Georgia waiting after next week’s bye week, I envision Sarkisian will emphasize making better decisions offensively, which could lead to an adjustment period. 

Last week against UL Monroe, Manning completed just 51.7% of his passes, in large part because he made several huge-risk huge-reward throws. Manning let it fly with eight pass attempts of 15-plus air yards, many of which Sarkisian noticed he had opportunities for safer checkdowns.

“With a young quarterback, I'm kind of kicking myself a little. I wish I had a few other freebie completions for him, just so that there could have been a little bit more balance getting that completion percentage up, being efficient, moving the chains,” Sarkisian said.

FanDuel and bet365 limit their team total options to a high of 49.5 points and are juiced at -122 and -115, respectively, to back the Under.

DraftKings is seemingly knowledgeable about Texas’ 50-point streak, and I am taking advantage of the better number while expecting the streak to end. A winning $10 wager at DraftKings’ -120 odds would net $8.33 in profit.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 54.55%

Mississippi State vs. Texas odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Mississippi State vs. Texas game info

• When: Saturday, Sept. 28
• Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET
• Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas
• How to watch: SEC Network
• Weather: 93 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph N
• Favorite: Texas -38.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

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