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Minnesota vs. Michigan Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 5

Philip Wood

Last Updated: September 27, 2024 11:34 AM EDT • 3 min 20 sec read.

Michigan running back Kalel Mullings celebrates a touchdown against USC.
Michigan running back Kalel Mullings celebrates a touchdown against USC. Photo by Junfu Han via USA TODAY Network.

Michigan hosts the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a key Big Ten matchup, and the Wolverines will once again look to lean on the running game.

The Wolverines are favored by 10 points on Saturday, as we're predicting their terrifying running back tandem will cause the Golden Gophers fits with our Minnesota vs. Michigan prediction.

Last week, the Wolverines defeated the USC Trojans 27-24 despite only 32 passing yards. Could we see Round 2 this Saturday?

Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers allowed 31 points to the Iowa Hawkeyes. Their rush defense was terrible, allowing Kaleb Johnson to run for 206 yards.

We know the Wolverines are one-dimensional, but we're determining if the Golden Gophers have the talent to stop what’s coming as part of our college football Week 5 predictions.

Best Minnesota vs. Michigan picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Michigan -10 () vs. Minnesota ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop pick: Kalel Mullings Over 84.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota vs. Michigan against the spread prediction: Week 5

Michigan to cover the spread: -10 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota vs. Michigan opening odds:

  • Minnesota: +10 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Michigan: -10 (-110 via BetMGM)

There has been little to no movement at our best sports betting sites. The Wolverines opened as 10-point favorites, and they remain there despite seeing 59% of support from bettors.

One-dimensional domination

The Golden Gophers are allowing 159 rushing yards per game after letting the Hawkeyes run for 272 yards against them last week. Iowa starting quarterback Cade McNamara finished the game 11-of-19 for just 62 yards, and yet, the Hawkeyes won by 17 anyway.

Alex Orji’s first start as a Wolverine left a lot to be desired. He completed seven of his 12 passes for just 32 yards. But the Wolverines were able to spring the upset thanks to averaging 6.3 yards per carry for 290 rushing yards.

The Wolverines' defense is very good again this season, and with Orji under center, the goal is to just not turn the ball over. Remember, Davis Warren had six interceptions in three games.

Michigan is going to run the ball down the Golden Gophers’ throats, and there’s nothing they can do about it.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Minnesota vs. Michigan prop pick for Week 5

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Kalel Mullings Over 84.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mullings has run for more than 150 yards in each of his last two games.

Last week, he out-carried Donovan Edwards 17 to 14, one week after Edwards outrushed him 17 to 15 against the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

This is a true split backfield, and Orji will take up a fair share of rushes, as well, which is why this is a four-star play instead of five.

Though Edwards and Orji will get plenty of carries, there’s no denying that Mullings has been the most effective back. He’s averaging 8.1 yards per carry this season, and he averaged 9.4 yards against the Trojans last week.

Without any aerial attack, the Wolverines will do nothing but run the ball. There’s a good chance that all of their runners hit their Overs, but Mullings is the most likely to do so.

Caesars and bet365 have the same total, but the former is asking -123 for the Over. FanDuel is asking -114 for the Over, but it has the number set at 88.5. The price isn’t good enough to take the extra four yards.

We also backed Mullings' rushing yards Over in our college football predictions and best bets for Week 5.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Minnesota vs. Michigan odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Minnesota vs. Michigan game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 28
  • Kickoff: Noon ET
  • Where: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Mich.
  • How to watch: FOX
  • Weather: 68 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, 12-mph wind
  • Favorite: Michigan (-395 via DraftKings)

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.