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Jacksonville State's Tre Stewart tries to evade the tackle of Southern Miss' Jay Jones as we look at our Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State prediction.
Jacksonville State's Tre Stewart tries to evade the tackle of Southern Miss' Jay Jones. Photo by Dave Hyatt / Special to the Gadsden Times via Imagn Images.

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and Jacksonville State Gamecocks clash tonight to conclude a CUSA doubleheader from Jacksonville, Ala. The game is set to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET from AmFirst Stadium, and it can be viewed on ESPN2.

  • Jacksonville State has taken three straight contests after starting 0-3
  • The Gamecocks are one of three schools with an unblemished record in CUSA league play
  • Middle Tennessee is 18-3-2 throughout its meetings with Jacksonville State

Our Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State prediction expects the Gamecocks' offense to overpower a struggling Blue Raiders squad as part of our college football Week 9 predictions.

Best Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State picks Tonight

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Jacksonville State -20.5 () vs. Middle Tennessee ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Tre Stewart to score the first touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State against the spread prediction: Week 9

Jacksonville State to cover the spread: -20.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State opening odds:

  • Middle Tennessee: +23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Jacksonville State: -23.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Gamecocks' offense is a juggernaut

Under Rich Rodriguez and his up-tempo style, Jacksonville State ranks 16th nationally in scoring, averaging 39.3 points per game. And in the two CUSA games, the Gamecocks have averaged 58.5 points.

The engine behind the potent offense is Furman transfer quarterback Tyler Huff, who has thrown for 1,269 yards and seven touchdowns. Huff leads all CUSA quarterbacks in yards per attempt (9.5), but his biggest strength is his legs as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country (503 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns).

Blue Raiders struggle defensively

If one analyzes Middle Tennessee through the lens of last week’s 14-5 win over Kennesaw State, they would be viewed as a great defensive football team. However, the Blue Raiders have too many weak areas that the Gamecocks, as a more formidable opponent, will expose.

Entering last week’s game against Kennesaw State, Middle Tennessee ranked outside the top 100 defensively in Passing and Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Havoc, and Defensive Finishing Drives. 

Middle Tennessee’s offense will need to score points to keep up in this matchup. However, Kennesaw State was just as bad or worse in all of the same defensive metrics as the Blue Raiders, and Middle Tennessee could only muster 284 total yards and 2.4 yards per rush, and one of its two touchdowns came on special teams (a 61-yard punt return).

Last year’s offense wasn’t enough

The Blue Raiders have not scored more than 21 points against any FBS opponent this year. And while they scored 30 points and got their first 400-yard passing game in five seasons in last year’s matchup against Jacksonville State, they still lost by 15 points at home as 2.5-point favorites.

The line has moved three points in Middle Tennessee’s favor, but I am jumping on the Gamecocks at the spread of -20.5 before the line moves back to the key number of 21. 

BetMGM is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering -21.5, so I am making this $10 wager at the sportsbook with the best number (FanDuel) with the hopes of returning a payout of $19.09.

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State best bet

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Tre Stewart to score the first touchdown (+350) ⭐⭐⭐

Three teams (Louisiana Tech, Memphis, and Ole Miss) all rushed for 200-plus yards against the Blue Raiders this year. The Gamecocks will look to flex their muscle and control the line of scrimmage once again, as they have scored the league’s most rushing touchdowns (22) and average the most yards per carry (5.53).

Running back Tre Stewart has four more rushing touchdowns (10 to 6) than Huff this year. And even though the quarterback has 31 more rushing yards on 10 fewer opportunities, the two players have the same +350 odds to score the first touchdown.

I am siding with Stewart to cross the goal line first, as he has opened the scoring in three straight games for the Gamecocks, with runs of 10, 1, and 32 yards.

Stewart has as high as -450 odds at our (carrying an 81.82% implied probability) to score at least one touchdown, so there is great value on him to be the game’s first touchdown scorer. A $10 winning wager at bet365’s +350 odds would net $35 in profits.  

Best odds: +350 via bet365 | Implied probability: 22.22%

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Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State line movement

As the hours to kickoff tick down, there's been a dramatic lean toward Jacksonville State covering the significant spread.

The same is true for the Over on 63.5 points, with bettors clearly believing that while Jacksonville State will win handily, Middle Tennessee's offense will still be able to do some lifting.

Middle Tennessee vs. Jacksonville State game info

  • When: Wednesday, Oct. 23
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: AmFirst Stadium (Jacksonville, Ala.)
  • How to watch: ESPN2
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph W
  • Favorite: Jacksonville State -21.5 (-105 via BetMGM)

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