Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 8

Michigan hasn’t enjoyed the encore performance it was looking for following its national championship campaign. If this weekend’s road test in Champaign mirrors a recent visit to Seattle, the season isn't about to get any better for the Wolverines.

Our Michigan vs. Illinois prediction looks for the Illini to continue their respectable ATS trends while facing a point spread that seems to be underestimating their prowess at home.

Both teams enter as long shots in the Big Ten Championship odds.

Best Michigan vs. Illinois picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Illinois +4 () vs. Michigan ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Under 44.5 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michigan vs. Illinois against the spread prediction: Week 8

Illinois to cover the spread: +4 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michigan vs. Illinois opening odds:

• Michigan: -2.5 (-110)
• Illinois: +2.5 (-110)

I'm concerned about whether an Illinois defense ranking 89th nationally against the run (170.8 yards per game) can limit a Michigan offense that's decisively one-dimensional in favor of the ground game.

But as it stands, the Illini could suffer a field-goal loss and still win for bettors.

Michigan is lousy against the spread

Michigan’s lone road game was a 10-point loss at Washington in which the Wolverines failed to cover the spread. Although the offense accumulates yards on the ground, too many of Michigan's drives fizzle out prematurely due to the limited nature of the attack.

The Wolverines (1-5 ATS) rank 131st in the nation in passing offense. So if you stop the run, you stop their drive. Michigan sits 129th in red-zone opportunities, reaching that area just 1.8 times per contest.

Meanwhile, Illinois has logged a 4-1-1 ATS record that includes a 2-1-1 mark at home. Illinois emerged with a six-point outright win over Kansas during its only game so far as a home underdog.

Michigan isn’t special enough in any facet of the game to be road favorites over an Illinois team that's defended its home turf.

The Illini are +3.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM, but you get more value catching +4 through Caesars, bet365, and DraftKings. The -105 odds at bet365 are the best on the board.

C Jackson Cowart is also taking the points as part of our college football Week 8 expert picks.

Best odds: -105 via bet365 | Implied probability: 51.22%

Michigan vs. Illinois best bet

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Under 44.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Michigan runs an offense almost exclusively based on the run, resulting in one of the nation's slowest paces. The Wolverines take an average of 31.0 seconds per play on offense, 132nd in the country.

Slow drives should stall out

Illinois ranks 82nd in offensive pace, meaning a game rooted in ball control could keep scoring low if offensive efficiency isn’t strong. While Illinois checks in at a respectable 43rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, the Illini will oppose a sturdy Wolverine defense that sits 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

At 85th in AdjO, Michigan’s propensity to stall out on offense (71st in the FBS in third-down conversion rate) could contribute to a real slog. After opening at 41.5, the total has moved in our favor to 44.5 at our best sports betting sites.

FanDuel’s -105 odds on Under 44.5 are the most favorable across the best sportsbooks.

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

Michigan vs. Illinois odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

• When: Saturday, Oct. 19
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
• How to watch: CBS
• Weather: 72 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6-mph SW
• Favorite: Michigan -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

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