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Tonight's Frisco Bowl Odds & Picks: Memphis vs. West Virginia Prediction

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 17, 2024 5:55 PM EST • 4 min 1 sec read.

Memphis Tigers running back Mario Anderson Jr. scores a touchdown against the Tulane Green Wave as we offer our Memphis vs. West Virginia prediction for tonight's Frisco Bowl.
Memphis Tigers running back Mario Anderson Jr. scores a touchdown against the Tulane Green Wave. Photo by Matthew Hinton via Imagn Images

The West Virginia Mountaineers showed former head coach Neal Brown the door in a decision that was announced at the start of December, providing Chad Scott with the opportunity to take the lead, at least temporarily. 

The Mountaineers' interim coach leads his 6-6 team into battle against the 10-2 Memphis Tigers in tonight's Frisco Bowl (Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Tigers, who opened as a 1-point underdog, are the 6-point favorites at our best sportsbooks after some significant line movement. Our Memphis vs. West Virginia prediction expects the Tigers to get the job done in the second game of bowl season. 

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.

Memphis vs. West Virginia odds movement: Frisco Bowl

West Virginia initially opened as a 1-point favorite to win the Frisco Bowl, but after 85% of money backed Memphis at BetMGM, the Tigers are favored by nearly a touchdown.

We've also seen 60% of moneyline wagers on the new favorites, who are riding their second consecutive 10-win season while facing one of a handful of 6-6 schools that qualified for bowl season - behind an interim coach, no less. 

The below picks are part of our Frisco Bowl coverage, including the Memphis vs. West Virginia player prop picks.

Memphis vs. West Virginia prediction & best pick: Frisco Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Memphis -3.5 () vs. West Virginia ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Seth Henigan Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Memphis vs. West Virginia ATS prediction

Memphis to cover the spread: -3.5 ⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%

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What will West Virginia look like under new leadership?

Before this bowl game, West Virginia fired head coach Neal Brown and named offensive coordinator Chad Scott the interim head coach. While such a coaching change sometimes forces a team to rally together, I prefer to back the more consistent Memphis team.

Memphis is certainly motivated. With a win, it projects to finish the season ranked for the fourth time in 11 years and the first time in five seasons. It has a great track record in bowl games, covering the spread in each of the last three. 

Memphis has an edge on defense

Memphis has the tools to make West Virginia a one-dimensional offense, as it ranks in the top 15 against the run in terms of Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

That solid run defense was on full display in the regular season finale against Tulane, a game Memphis won outright as 12.5-point underdogs. 

The Tigers held the Green Wave to 3.2 yards per carry and just 57 rushing yards overall, which allowed them to overcome Darian Mensah’s 317 passing yards. 

West Virginia opened as a one-point favorite in this game, but I agree with the massive line movement amid its coaching change that has made Memphis more than a field-goal favorite. 

Memphis went 3-1 ATS against non-conference opponents and covered both games on extended rest. Thus, I am rushing to the betting window at FanDuel to take advantage of the 3.5-point spread while it lasts.

Our other best sports betting apps are at -4 or higher, so the -120 odds at FanDuel are justified and would still return a solid $18.33 payout on a winning $10 wager.

Memphis vs. West Virginia best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Seth Henigan Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 58.33%

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Henigan is one of the rare quarterbacks in this day and age of college football who has been a four-year starter, all at the same school. Thus, I expect the Memphis coaching staff to reward Henigan’s loyalty with a high-volume passing day.

Henigan entered the last game against Tulane with 28 big-time throws to just 12 turnover-worthy plays. He now faces a Mountaineers defense that finished near dead last among all FBS teams in Passing Success Rate Allowed and PFF Coverage grade.

This is our most confident five-star play, as Henigan has thrown multiple touchdowns in four of the last five games, while West Virginia allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of its final six conference games.

This Over is juiced as high as -178 (carrying a 64.03% implied probability) at FanDuel, so we are getting great value by making this wager at bet365.

Memphis vs. West Virginia odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Memphis vs. West Virginia live odds

Memphis vs. West Virginia opening odds:

  • Memphis: +1 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • West Virginia: -1 (-110 via BetMGM)

Memphis vs. West Virginia injuries

Frisco Bowl game info

  • When: Tuesday, Dec. 17
  • Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
  • Where: Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 60 degrees, 55% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph S

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”