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LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 9

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 25, 2024 12:00 PM EDT • 4 min 7 sec read.

LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looks to pass against Arkansas. We're backing Nussmeier in our LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction.
LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier looks to pass against Arkansas. Photo by Nelson Chenault via Imagn Images.

The only two undefeated teams in SEC play meet in a Saturday night showdown, as Texas A&M hosts LSU from Kyle Field at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN+).

  • Both LSU and Texas A&M have won six straight games since dropping their season openers to non-conference opponents, reigniting their College Football Playoff odds
  • The home team has won each of the last seven games in this series
  • LSU has a 37% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game and Texas A&M has a 30% chance, according to ESPN Analytics

Our LSU vs. Texas A&M prediction bucks the trend of the home team’s dominance in this rivalry and expects the Tigers to stay within the point spread as part of our Week 9 college football predictions.

Best LSU vs. Texas A&M picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: LSU +2.5 () vs. Texas A&M ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Garrett Nussmeier Under 0.5 interceptions () ⭐⭐⭐

LSU vs. Texas A&M against the spread prediction: Week 9

LSU to cover the spread: +2.5 (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

LSU vs. Texas A&M opening odds:

  • LSU: +4.5 (-110)
  • Texas A&M: -4.5 (-110)

It seems like ages ago that the LSU defense was torched for 378 passing yards and 447 total yards in the season opener against USC.

The Tigers have allowed 1.1 points per possession and have forced six turnovers over the last six quarters (not including overtime). 

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LSU’s defense has also been elite in closing out games, as it has allowed just 21 points in the second halves (one touchdown, five field goals) of three SEC games.

LSU’s offensive line has the advantage

Texas A&M enters this game ranked ninth in defensive efficiency, per ESPN Analytics. However, the Tigers’ improved offensive line play should negate many of Texas A&M’s best strengths.

LSU running back Caden Durham is coming off a 101-rushing yard and career-high three-rushing touchdown performance against Arkansas. And Emery Jones earned SEC Offensive Linemen of the Week honors, as he helped pave the way for 34 points and 393 total yards of offense against Arkansas.

LSU’s defense also ranks seventh nationally averaging 3.43 sacks per game, so Texas A&M needs all of its offensive line intact to be able to sustain offense against the best defensive front it has faced all season.

Brian Kelly is solid in road matchups

While LSU head coach Brian Kelly catches much criticism, it is often unfounded, as his teams have won 10-plus games in seven straight seasons, and he is the winningest active head coach at any level (310-105-2).

Kelly also often prepares his teams well for road contests. When playing the second (or more) of consecutive road games, Kelly’s teams are 13-5 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in his college coaching career.

Caesars is the only sportsbook charging standard -110 juice to back the underdogs, while all others are at -105. That suggests oddsmakers are close to moving the line in the Tigers’ favor, so I am taking advantage of the plus-money odds and the +2.5 while I can get it at BetMGM.

Best odds: +100 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 50%

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LSU vs. Texas A&M best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Garrett Nussmeir Under 0.5 interceptions (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Texas A&M’s defense has intercepted eight passes this season, which ranks 26th nationally. But I am taking a shot at these generous plus-money odds for Nussmeier to play interception-free football considering the elite pass protection he has received.

LSU’s offensive line has allowed just two sacks this season, fewest in the SEC. That helped the Tigers to be extremely efficient offensively in last week’s road game.

Nussmeier leads the SEC and ranks seventh nationally with 18 passing touchdowns. He has also thrown for over 300 yards five times this season and six times in eight career starts, and Rob Paul expects a similar effort Saturday as part of his college football Week 9 expert picks.

Because of his success, there will likely be plenty of passing volume for Nussmeier. But he has gone without an interception in two of three games when he had 37 or fewer pass attempts. 

Perhaps Brian Kelly will choose to lean more on an improved running game in this hostile environment, which will help keep Nussmeier out of harm's way from a turnover standpoint.

Caesars has shorter +114 odds for Nussmeier to go without an interception. I'm taking advantage of the best odds at bet365, where a winning $10 wager would net $12 in profits.

Best odds: +120 via bet365 | Implied probability: 45.45%

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LSU vs. Texas A&M odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

LSU vs. Texas A&M game info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 26
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
  • How to watch: ABC, ESPN+
  • Weather: 81 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 10 mph SE
  • Favorite: Texas A&M -2.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”