Louisville vs. Boston College Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 9
Last Updated: October 24, 2024 8:00 AM EDT • 4 min 32 sec read.
The Louisville Cardinals and Boston College Eagles meet on Friday night, with both teams looking to stay in the ACC race and avoid a dubious third conference loss.
- Boston College is 4-3 in its last seven games against Louisville
- The Cardinals haven't won at Alumni Stadium since 2016, losing three in a row
- Louisville, among the ACC Championship contenders, fell to 20-65-1 vs. AP top 25 teams with last week’s 52-45 loss to Miami
Our Louisville vs. Boston College prediction acknowledges why Alumni Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Cardinals in recent years but explains why Friday's result will be different.
The below picks are part of our college football Week 9 predictions.
Best Louisville vs. Boston College picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Louisville -7 () vs. Boston College ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Isaac Brown Over 70.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Louisville vs. Boston College against the spread prediction: Week 9
Louisville to cover the spread: -7 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Louisville vs. Boston College opening odds:
- Louisville: -8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Boston College: +8.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Louisville’s offense deserves much praise
While Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm will acknowledge that “a loss is a loss,” there's no ignoring what the Cardinals did on offense last week against Miami.
Louisville scored 45 points against the Hurricanes, its most in a non-overtime loss in program history. That is no small feat considering Miami’s defense ranked fourth in Pass Success and third in Havoc entering the game.
Quarterback Tyler Shough’s 31 completions were the most by a Louisville quarterback since Teddy Bridgewater in 2013.
The Cardinals have now racked up 400-plus yards of total offense five times this season. They amassed 350-plus yards of total offense in 17 of the last 21 games under Brohm and are 14-7 when reaching that milestone.
While Louisville has been poor in ACC road games since joining the conference (18-24), the direction the program is taking under Brohm is promising, and the team is poised to secure their second straight ACC road win for the first time since 2016.
Cardinals’ balanced offense
Louisville’s offensive balance is what makes it so hard to defend. This season, it has called 212 running plays to 246 passing plays.
Shough is tied for seventh nationally with 18 touchdown passes and has thrown multiple touchdowns in six of seven games. He is on pace to throw for 3,456 yards, which would be the most for the school since Lamar Jackson in 2017.
The Cardinals’ balance is also a reason for their offensive explosiveness. Louisville ranks 12th nationally in yards per play (7.2) and is tied for second with 15 plays of 40-plus yards and eight of 50-plus yards.
Defense starts the second half well
Louisville allowed two touchdowns in the third quarter last week, the first time it allowed a third-quarter score in seven games. The Cardinals have now out-scored opponents 73-26 in the third quarter.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals' defense has been getting more pressure on the quarterback. They recorded three sacks against Virginia and Miami after getting one sack in the three previous games.
Louisville is better than its record indicates
Louisville has lost three one-score games this season for the first time since 2021. Another thing that bodes well for the Cardinals’ chances of success is the optimism that they will do well in the turnover department.
Louisville is 9-0 when it wins the turnover battle under head coach Jeff Brohm and 5-7 when it doesn’t. Boston College ranks outside the top 60 nationally in turnover margin.
While the line has come down significantly in favor of Boston College, I believe there is great value in laying seven points with Louisville.
All of our other top sports betting sites have Louisville as a 7.5-point favorite, so I am taking advantage of BetMGM's best number, especially at the standard -110 juice.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM| Implied probability: 52.38%
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Louisville vs. Boston College best bet
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Isaac Brown Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Louisville running back Isaac Brown’s 564 rushing yards are the third-most in school history by a true freshman. He needs just 10 rushing yards to pass John Brewer for second place.
Brown is also the second true freshman in school history with three straight 100-yard rushing games.
Louisville being a touchdown favorite is significant for Brown’s chances of success. The Cardinals have thrown more than they have run in four of seven games this season, including all three losses. If the Cardinals jump out to an early lead, they should rely even more on the running game.
Boston College entered last week ranked fifth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and was outside the top 50 in Passing PPA Allowed. However, Virginia Tech gashed the Eagles for 368 rushing yards and 9.2 yards per rush while Bhayshul Tuten ran for 266 yards on 18 carries.
The best number is found at Caesars, as Brown’s O/U goes as high as 73.5 rushing yards at FanDuel. A winning $10 wager through Caesars’ -115 odds would profit $8.70.
Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Louisville vs. Boston College odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Louisville vs. Boston College game info
- When: Friday, Oct. 25
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, Mass.)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 50 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph SW
- Favorite: Louisville -7 (-110 via BetMGM)
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Mike Spector