Skip to main content

Kentucky vs. Texas Prediction & Picks: College Football Week 13

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 23, 2024 6:00 AM EST • 4 min 35 sec read.

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers and wide receiver Isaiah Bond celebrate as we make our best Kentucky vs. Texas prediction.
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers and wide receiver Isaiah Bond celebrate after the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks. Photo by: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images.

The Texas Longhorns look to inch closer to cementing their spot in the SEC Championship Game when they host the Kentucky Wildcats as home favorites in Week 13.

  • Texas is off to a 9-1 start for a second straight season after previously failing to do since 2009
  • Kentucky snapped a four-game losing streak with a 48-6 win against Murray State last time out
  • This is only the second meeting all-time between the schools - Texas defeated Kentucky 7-6 in 1951

As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, my Kentucky vs. Texas prediction looks at if the road team hang around if the Longhorns could be caught in a lookahead spot. We also looked at our favorite Kentucky vs. Texas player props.

The Longhorns are 20.5-point home favorites with the O/U ranging from 46.5 to 47.5 points. Kickoff for this SEC tilt is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas.

Kentucky vs. Texas prediction & best bet

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Kentucky +20.5 () vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Brock Vandagriff Over 0.5 passing touchdowns (-118 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kentucky vs. Texas ATS prediction: Week 13

Kentucky to cover the spread: +20.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%

Bet $1, Get 10x 100% Profit Boosts

New users only. Must use promo code. Min. $10 deposit. Max. additional winnings $2.5K per token. Tokens expire in 14 days. Void where prohibited. .

Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission. 21+. Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly

Longhorns coming off an uninspiring performance

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian would be the first one to tell you that he is just fine with the team’s 20-10 road win at Arkansas last week, even though the Longhorns did not cover the 13.5-point spread.

However, while quarterback Quinn Ewers has seven passing touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last two games, one cannot help but be concerned that the Texas passing attack did not take more advantage of the Razorbacks' secondary.

Ewers faced the same unit that was torched by Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart in its previous game for 515 passing yards and six touchdowns, both of which were school records. Arkansas allowed 562 passing yards to Ole Miss on just 28 completions, further highlighting its vulnerability to explosive passing plays (the Razorbacks had ranked 119th against pass explosives).

And while Texas was coming off a game where it had 10 explosive pass plays against Florida, Ewers had just a 5.5 yards per attempt average against Arkansas while completing just one pass over 20 yards.

Kentucky’s defense can keep team in it

Kentucky’s lightened schedule with a game against Murray State last week came at a great time, as the Wildcats needed to taste a victory after four straight SEC losses dropped their conference record to 1-6.

Even amid the four consecutive losses to Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, and Tennessee, it is not like the Wildcats defense played poorly. 

Kentucky held three of those opponents to 28 or fewer points. Its most impressive defensive performance was arguably the game against Tennessee two weeks ago, when the Wildcats had a 10-7 halftime lead on the road against the Volunteers before being undone by three turnovers.

Kentucky averaged more yards per carry than the Volunteers, and it held up well winning the time of possession battle despite totaling 10 fewer first downs.

Wildcats have pulled road upsets recently

Kentucky has won two of its last three road games against AP top-10 opponents after losing its previous 34 such games from 1980-2023. That includes a 20-17 road upset of an Ole Miss team this year with serious College Football Playoff odds aspirations.

Kentucky’s recent success in these road games has me bucking the trend that head coach Mark Stoops is just 14-20-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog, per Evan Abrams.

While Sarkisian is 8-5 ATS at Texas as a favorite of 17-plus points, there is a lookahead element that plays into this game. Depending on what happens this week, the Longhorns’ regular season finale at Texas A&M next week could serve as an SEC Championship elimination game.  

While all of the best sports betting sites are in unison with a spread of 20.5, I am backing the Wildcats at Caesars, as it is the only sportsbook charging less than -108 juice on that side.

Kentucky vs. Texas best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Brock Vandagriff Over 0.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -118 via Caesars | Implied probability: 54.13%

It is not often one sees a college quarterback’s passing touchdowns O/U set as low as 0.5. But that is the respect that oddsmakers have for a Longhorns defense that entered last week ranked 14th in Havoc and followed that up with six sacks and nine tackles for loss against Arkansas.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops will try to maintain a ground-and-pound approach as long as he can. For most of the year, the Wildcats have ranked inside the top 25 of FBS teams in Rush Rate and Rush Success Rate.

Vandagriff has attempted 19 or fewer passes in three consecutive games, yet he has still managed at least one passing touchdown in five of his previous six games. 

The Wildcats will likely need at least one passing touchdown to cover the spread, but this wager can act as a hedge of sorts in case the game gets away from them, as the game script would force Kentucky to pass more often.  

The Over is juiced as high as -135 (carrying a 57.45% implied probability) at Caesars. Thus, the best value is with Caesars’ -118 odds, through which a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.47.

Our Rob Paul is taking a different approach to Vandagriff's player props as part of his college football Week 13 expert picks.

Kentucky vs. Texas odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Kentucky vs. Texas live odds

Kentucky vs. Texas opening odds:

  • Kentucky: +20.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Texas: -20.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Kentucky vs. Texas game info

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 23
  • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas)
  • How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 79 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph S
  • Favorite: Texas -20.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission

Related pages

Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”