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Iowa vs. Missouri Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: Music City Bowl

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 29, 2024 5:32 PM EST • 3 min 22 sec read.

Missouri Tigers running back Marcus Carroll runs against the Mississippi State Bulldogs as we offer our Iowa vs. Missouri player prop picks.
Missouri Tigers running back Marcus Carroll runs against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Photo by Matt Bush via Imagn Images

The Iowa Hawkeyes will be without numerous key offensive players when they take on the Missouri Tigers.

We must throw out many regular season stats when making the best Iowa vs. Missouri player prop picks for the Music City Bowl. The Hawkeyes will be without running back Kaleb Johnson, who ran for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns, while the Tigers will be without 10 defensive players.

The Tigers are favored by 2.5 points for the game at Nissan Stadium (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). But will either of these teams find offensive success, or are we bound for a low-scoring slugfest?

Our Music City Bowl coverage doesn't end here, as Brenden Schaeffer dives into whether to back the Tigers or Hawkeyes in our Iowa vs. Missouri prediction. 

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

Iowa vs. Missouri college football player prop picks: Music City Bowl

College football picks made Sunday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

  • Marcus Carroll touchdown prediction: First touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Brady Cook prop pick: Under 174.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Kamari Moulton prop pick: Over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Iowa vs. Missouri touchdown prediction

Marcus Carroll first touchdown ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +450 via bet365 | Implied probability: 18.18%

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Because of Johnson’s absence and how good the Hawkeyes’ defense has been this season, you could realistically consider taking “No Touchdown Scorer" for this game.

That said, if the Tigers manage to get into the red zone, Carroll will take over just as he’s done in his last three games. He has six touchdowns during that stretch and leads the Tigers with 12 this season, accounting for nearly one-third of their offensive scores.

You could take him as an anytime touchdown scorer for +110, but I’ll take this prop instead. This will be a low-scoring game, and the first touchdown could realistically be the only one. Based on his season, Carroll is the only player that bettors should be confident in scoring in this game.

Best Iowa vs. Missouri prop picks

Brady Cook Under 174.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Despite a slew of offensive opt-outs, the Hawkeyes’ defense remains largely intact entering this game. While they will be missing some defensive linemen and linebackers, Jermari Harris, who hasn’t played since Nov. 8, is the only major opt-out.

While the Hawkeyes have given up 201.9 passing yards per game this season, they’ve allowed just 174.3 over their last three. And while Cook has seven games with at least 200 yards, he finished just 10-of-20 for 168 yards in his final game of the season.

The Hawkeyes present a defensive challenge that Cook hasn’t faced this year. With Luther Burden III, the team’s second-leading receiver, not playing, he’ll struggle to find options against this secondary.

Kamari Moulton Over 69.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Moulton has proven himself a worthy second option for the Hawkeyes this season. Though he rushed three times for -4 yards his last time out, he ran for 114 against the Maryland Terrapins on November 23, and he’s topped 60 yards three times.

The Tigers are allowing 140.6 rushing yards per game, which will be problematic against an offense averaging 196.2 rushing yards per contest.

While Johnson was the major reason for the Hawkeyes’ offensive success, without him, this is still a run-first offense. The Hawkeyes averaged 38.5 rushing attempts per game. Moulton will get the majority of those carries.

Two of our best sportsbooks have this prop available right now, and they are not in agreement. FanDuel has the total set at 76.5, and the sportsbook is asking -114 for the Over. For seven extra yards, there is a lot of value in taking this at bet365.

Music City Bowl live odds & game info

  • When: Monday, Dec. 30, 2024
  • Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 60 degrees, 3% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph SSE
  • Favorite: Missouri -2.5 (-105 via Caesars)

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.