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Iowa State vs. Miami Prediction Today: Pop-Tarts Bowl Picks & Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 28, 2024 12:30 PM EST • 3 min 56 sec read.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward throws a pass as we make our Iowa State vs. Miami prediction ahead of today's Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) throws a pass. Photo by Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images.

The first bowl game outside of the College Football Playoff bracket featuring two 10-win teams kicks off today when the Iowa State Cyclones meet the Miami Hurricanes in the 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl.

Our Iowa State vs. Miami prediction, part of our bowl game predictions this week, backs the Hurricanes with Heisman Trophy finalist Cam Ward under center. Kickoff from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC).

Shane Jackson's Iowa State vs. Miami player prop picks also highlight multiple players who could impact the outcome of the contest. Our best sportsbooks list the Hurricanes as 4-point favorites. 

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

Iowa State vs. Miami prediction & best pick: Pop-Tarts Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Miami -3.5 () vs. Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Iowa State Under 26.5 total points () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Iowa State vs. Miami ATS prediction

Miami to cover the spread: -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Ward destined to change Miami’s bowl fortune

Miami’s bowl motivation has been questioned after losing to Syracuse in the regular season finale, which cost it a chance to play for an ACC championship. But the Hurricanes should receive the boost they will need with Ward confident he will play.

Iowa State will be a popular play, given that the Hurricanes are just 1-11 in their last 12 bowl games. However, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal has the program headed in the right direction after going 10-2 through the first 12 games.

Overrated Cyclones' defense

Iowa State entered the Big 12 Championship Game against Arizona State with a defense that ranked 11th in coverage grading and 13th in creating contested catches. Furthermore, the Cyclones ranked in the top 12 defensively in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.

You wouldn't know Iowa State had an elite defense after getting torched for 45 points by Arizona State, mainly because it allowed 248 rushing yards and nearly seven yards per carry.

On paper, Iowa State is built to slow Miami’s elite passing attack, but is still susceptible to the run if the Hurricanes attack the Cyclones more on the ground.

Either way, Iowa State has not seen an offense like Miami’s, which entered its last game ranked in the top 10 in Passing Success Rate, Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards, Finishing Drives, Quality Drives, and Havoc Allowed.

A winning $10 bet will profit $9.09. 

Iowa State vs. Miami best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Iowa State Under 26.5 total points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%

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Iowa State is the only team in the country with a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel), and each averaged 2.6 yards per route run or better. But Miami has a sneaky good defense that I expect will show up in a big way.

Entering its last game, Miami ranked in the top 35 in several defensive categories, including Passing and Rushing Success Rate, Havoc, sacks, interceptions, and third-down conversion rate.

The Hurricanes’ weakness defensively is their No. 124 ranking in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. However, while Iowa State finished the regular season ranked in the top 35 in Rush EPA, it was outside the top 100 in Success Rate and Line Yards.

FanDuel is offering an excellent number and price, as DraftKings has the team total Under of 24.5 juiced to -115. Through FanDuel’s -106 odds, a $10 winning wager will pay out $19.43 if Iowa State scores 26 or less.

Iowa State vs. Miami odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Iowa State vs. Miami live odds

Iowa State vs. Miami opening odds:

  • Iowa State: -1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Miami: +1.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Iowa State vs. Miami odds movement

Iowa State opened as a 1.5-point favorite with our best sports betting apps after the Cyclones posted a program-best 10 wins this season. This was also largely due to the fact that Ward had not announced his status for the postseason showdown. As soon as Ward stated he would remain in his role as starting signal caller for the Pop-Tarts Bowl, the line swung in Miami's favor.

The Hurricanes are 4-point favorites as the dust settles before kickoff.

Iowa State vs. Miami injuries

Pop-Tarts Bowl game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 28
  • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Fla.)
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Weather: 79 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph ESE

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”