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Iowa State vs. Miami Prediction & Picks: Pop-Tarts Bowl Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 27, 2024 8:36 AM EST • 3 min 40 sec read.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward passes the ball against the Syracuse Orange as we offer our Iowa State vs. Miami prediction for Saturday's Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward passes the ball against the Syracuse Orange. Photo by Rich Barnes via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones and Miami Hurricanes will look to shrug off the disappointment of not making the College Football Playoff and end the season on a high note when they meet at the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

  • This is the first bowl game (outside of the playoffs) that pits two 10-win teams against each other
  • Iowa State’s 10 wins are a school record
  • Miami’s Heisman invitee Cam Ward has said he would play in this game

Our Iowa State vs. Miami prediction for the Pop-Tarts Bowl, part of our college bowl game predictions, backs the Hurricanes with the assumption that Ward will be under center.

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Iowa State vs. Miami prediction & best pick: Pop-Tarts Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Miami -3.5 () vs. Iowa State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Iowa State Under 26.5 total points () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Iowa State vs. Miami ATS prediction

Miami to cover the spread: -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Ward destined to change Miami’s bowl fortune

Miami’s bowl motivation has been questioned after losing to Syracuse in the regular season finale, which cost it a chance to play for an ACC championship. But the Hurricanes should receive the boost they will need with Ward confident he will play.

Iowa State will be a popular play, given that the Hurricanes are just 1-11 in their last 12 bowl games. However, Miami head coach Mario Cristobal has the program headed in the right direction after going 10-2 through the first 12 games.

Overrated Cyclones' defense

Iowa State entered the Big 12 Championship Game against Arizona State with a defense that ranked 11th in coverage grading and 13th in creating contested catches. Furthermore, the Cyclones ranked in the top 12 defensively in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.

You wouldn't know Iowa State had an elite defense after getting torched for 45 points by Arizona State, mainly because it allowed 248 rushing yards and nearly seven yards per carry.

On paper, Iowa State is built to slow Miami’s elite passing attack, but is still susceptible to the run if the Hurricanes attack the Cyclones more on the ground.

Either way, Iowa State has not seen an offense like Miami’s, which entered its last game ranked in the top 10 in Passing Success Rate, Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards, Finishing Drives, Quality Drives, and Havoc Allowed.

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Iowa State vs. Miami best pick

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Iowa State Under 26.5 total points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%

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Iowa State is the only team in the country with a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel), and each averaged 2.6 yards per route run or better. But Miami has a sneaky good defense that I expect will show up in a big way.

Entering its last game, Miami ranked in the top 35 in several defensive categories, including Passing and Rushing Success Rate, Havoc, sacks, interceptions, and third-down conversion rate.

The Hurricanes’ weakness defensively is their No. 124 ranking in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. However, while Iowa State finished the regular season ranked in the top 35 in Rush EPA, it was outside the top 100 in Success Rate and Line Yards.

FanDuel is offering an excellent number and price, as DraftKings has the team total Under of 24.5 juiced to -115. Through FanDuel’s -106 odds, a $10 winning wager will pay out $19.43 if Iowa State scores 26 or less.

Iowa State vs. Miami odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Iowa State vs. Miami live odds

Iowa State vs. Miami opening odds:

  • Iowa State: -1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Miami: +1.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Iowa State vs. Miami injuries

Pop-Tarts Bowl game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 28
  • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Fla.)
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Weather: 79 degrees, 25% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph ESE
  • Favorite: Miami -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”