Iowa State vs. Arizona State Prediction & Picks: Big 12 Championship

A conference title and a trip to the College Football Playoff is up for grabs when Iowa State (10-2) and Arizona State (10-2) square off at Noon ET on Saturday inside AT&T Stadium.

This will be Iowa State’s second trip to the Big 12 championship game after the Cyclones lost to Oklahoma in 2020. Meanwhile, Arizona State has reached the championship game in its first season in the Big 12, but the school hasn’t won a conference championship since 2007.

The Sun Devils are 1.5-point favorites ahead of Saturday’s game at our best sports betting apps, but our Iowa State vs. Arizona State prediction expects a colossal showdown in Arlington, Texas.

Both teams are deep long shots in the college football championship odds.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State prediction & best pick

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Iowa State +1.5 () vs. Arizona State ⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Sam Leavitt Under 204.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Iowa State vs. Arizona State ATS prediction: Big 12 Championship

Iowa State to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

This game will be a coin flip. 

The market is reflecting that too, as Arizona State opened as a 1-point underdog before rising to a 2-point favorite. The spread at our best sportsbooks hasn’t been higher than -2 on either side.

In what should be a tightly contested battle, I give the edge to Iowa State for multiple reasons:

• Arizona State ranks 131st in special teams, per SP+.
• Iowa State sits fifth in penalties per game, while ASU is 94th.
• The Sun Devils lost top receiver Jordyn Tyson last week.

The last point might be the most crucial in this contest. The loss of Tyson makes ASU one-dimensional against an ISU defense that ranks 22nd in defensive SP+ this year.

The Cyclones can now focus their defensive attention on Sun Devils running back Cameron Skattebo while earning hidden yardage through special teams and penalties. That’s likely why projects a narrow 27.53-25.58 victory for ISU.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State best pick

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Sam Leavitt Under 204.5 passing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Arizona quarterback Sam Leavitt will struggle without his top receiver in the season's most signifigant game.

Tyson led the team with 113 regular-season targets, and the next closest player on the squad sat at 44. His 75 receptions were 40 higher than the second-best receiver, too. Tyson also accumulated 1,098 yards, while Skattebo ranked second teamwide with 468 yards.

Leavitt’s passing yards prop has dropped from 207.5 since the opening number surfaced, so bettors clearly agree that it could be a long day against the ISU defense. I’d bet this down to 200 passing yards for one of your college football championship week predictions.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Iowa State vs. Arizona State live odds

Iowa State vs. Arizona opening odds:

• Iowa State -1
• Arizona State +1

Iowa State vs. Arizona State game info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: AT&T Stadium
• How to watch: ABC
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Arizona State -1.5 (-110)

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