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Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction & Picks: College Football Playoff Round 1

Rob Paul

Last Updated: December 19, 2024 8:35 PM EST • 3 min 52 sec read.

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love jumps over USC safety Kamari Ramsey. We're backing Love in our Indiana vs. Notre Dame prediction.
Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love jumps over USC safety Kamari Ramsey. Photo by Gary A. Vasquez via Imagn Images.

It's a Hoosier State special in the opening game of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, as Notre Dame hosts Indiana at Notre Dame Stadium on Friday at 8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN)

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Indiana vs. Notre Dame prediction & best pick: College Football Playoff

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Notre Dame -7 () vs. Indiana ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Jeremiyah Love Over 79.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Indiana vs. Notre Dame ATS prediction

Notre Dame to cover the spread: -7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via Caesars | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Do not let Notre Dame's upset loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7 fool you - this is one of the best teams in the country. The Fighting Irish bounced back from that loss to the Huskies and have outscored opponents by an average of 30.7 points per game.

The biggest difference has been the offense coming alive behind the mobility of QB Riley Leonard and the one-two punch of running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The trio has 36 rushing touchdowns this season and has the offense sitting No. 3 in .

While the Hoosiers have played strong defense all year, they've faced just three teams ranked in the top 60 by - Ohio State, Michigan, and Nebraska. Two of those teams rank outside of the top 85 in SP+ on offense, while the Buckeyes dropped 38 on the Hoosiers with an offense that's ranked ninth - Notre Dame's sits at No. 5.

All crossed up

The bigger mismatch in this game, though, will be when Notre Dame's defense is on the field. This is the No. 1 defense in EPA per dropback, and it allows the third-fewest passing yards per game (157.9). 

It's only going to be more difficult for Hoosiers QB Kurtis Rourke with Howard Cross set to return to the lineup for Marcus Freeman's team. The preseason All-American has a 10.2% pass-rush win rate and should make things easier on Rylie Mills, who has the third-most pressures in the country among interior defensive linemen (33), per .

The Buckeyes were able to sack Rourke five times while their front seven overpowered the Hoosiers' O-line, and I think the Irish will cover due to similar circumstances. If they do, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame best pick

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Jeremiyah Love Over 79.5 rushing yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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This line at bet365 is a must - the same prop at our other college football betting sites either has a shorter price or the line is set at 86.5 yards. Given the way Love has run down the stretch, this might be one of the best plays of the first round of the CFP.

The sophomore star has crossed 79.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games while averaging 97.4 rushing yards per game. For as good as Indiana's run defense is, I'm not sure that group has seen a back as explosive as Love this season (that includes Ohio State's Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson).

Love is top 25 in the country in rushing yards after contact per carry (4.11) and missed tackles forced (55), plus Leonard's legs should help open things up. If the Irish's star back goes for 80-plus once again, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit. 

Indiana vs. Notre Dame odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Indiana vs. Notre Dame live odds

Indiana vs. Notre Dame opening odds:

  • Indiana: +8 (-110)
  • Notre Dame: -8 (-110)

Indiana vs. Notre betting action & odds movement

Indiana vs. Notre Dame injuries

Indiana vs. Notre Dame game info

  • When: Friday, Dec. 20
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Notre Dame Stadium (South Bend, Ind.)
  • How to watch: ABC, ESPN
  • Weather: 27 degrees, 37% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph N

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Written By:
Rob Paul
Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining 520ccc.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.