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Houston vs. TCU Prediction, Tonight: Week 6 Picks & Odds

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: October 4, 2024 4:30 PM EDT • 3 min 21 sec read.

TCU quarterback Josh Hoover throws a pass during the first quarter against UCF. We're backing the Horned Frogs in our Houston vs. TCU prediction.
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover throws a pass during the first quarter against UCF. Photo by Andrew Dieb via Imagn Images.

A Houston team that hasn't scored in two straight games heads to Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Tex. to take on TCU at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) on Friday.

  • With the Horned Frogs ranked top 25 nationally in scoring average, we're feeling confident they'll cover in our Houston vs. TCU prediction
  • A TCU win could bolster its Big 12 Championship odds, with the conference completely wide-open through five weeks
  • Head coach Sonny Dykes has already led the Horned Frogs to a national title appearance, and if they look strong in Big 12 play, they could be a College Football Playoff odds sleeper

Friday night football under the lights in Texas leads our college football Week 6 predictions ahead of Saturday's slate.

Shane Jackson broke down his thoughts of the rest of this weekend's Big 12 predictions ahead of Saturday.

Houston vs. TCU odds movement

TCU opened as a 17-point favorite at our college football betting sites. The line has seen frequent movement throughout the week, dropping to as low as -15.5, but has since come back up to -16.5.

The Horned Frogs have 71% of the money on them covering, with just 29% on Houston. The Over has 54% of the money, with the total hovering around 51.

Best Houston vs. TCU picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: TCU -15.5 () vs. Houston ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop pick: Savion Williams Under 45.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston vs. TCU against the spread prediction: Week 6

TCU to cover the spread: -15.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston vs. TCU opening odds:

  • Houston: +17 (-110)
  • TCU: -17 (-110)

Considering its early woes against the spread, it’s daunting to see TCU as such a heavy favorite. But the Horned Frogs missed a cover by the hook in their home opener against LIU, so we’re not necessarily holding that 45-0 win against them even though it did contribute to their 1-4 ATS record entering Friday night.

Still, with a team that has struggled against the spread featured as a 15.5-point favorite, I’d have to see some pretty damning data on the other side not to bet against them. Then again, damned is the best description I could imagine for the Cougars' offense.

Houston, your offense is a problem

Houston hasn’t scored a point since Sept. 14, having been shut out by Iowa State and Cincinnati in its two most recent games. As a result, it lost both games by margins greater than Friday’s point spread.

TCU averages 37.0 points per game (18th in FBS) and has scored 34 or more points in all five games played this season. TCU’s defense runs middle of the pack (65th in adjusted defensive efficiency) but it’s decent enough to win against Houston’s offense (121st in adjusted efficiency).

FanDuel lists the spread with inflated -115 odds, but it’s worth the price to get the TCU -15.5 spread compared to -16.5 at other best sports betting sites.

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Houston vs. TCU prop pick for Week 6

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Savion Williams Under 45.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

TCU wide receiver Savion Williams has been pretty consistent in the receiving yards category this season, clearing 45.5 in four of five games. But we’re fading his likelihood to reach that target in this matchup.

TCU could lean on the run

Although Houston can’t seem to score worth a lick, its strength as a team has come in limiting opposing passing attacks. The Cougars have allowed 147.3 passing yards per game on the season, ranking 10th in FBS in the category.

Houston’s run defense ranks 64th in FBS in yards per game. With an expected positive game script, TCU could lean on the ground game, boxing its third-most-prominent pass-catcher into a quieter night. Williams has been consistent, but not explosive, averaging just 42.0 receiving yards per game over his last three contests.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Houston vs. TCU odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Houston vs. TCU game info

  • When: Friday, Oct. 4
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 86 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, winds 6 mph SE
  • Favorite: TCU -16.5 ()

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.