Georgia vs. Texas Prediction & Picks: SEC Championship Game

When Georgia and Texas clash on Saturday, it will be a championship game showdown between an SEC stalwart and a conference newcomer. The winner will also get a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Both squads have short College Football Championship odds, unsurprising considering that an SEC team has played for the national title in 16 of the last 18 seasons. 

Georgia is making its seventh SEC Championship Game appearance in the last eight years (it is 2-4 in the previous six), and it beat Texas, 30-15, in Week 8 in Austin.

Depending on which of our best sports betting sites you're shopping at, you'll find the Longhorns as 2.5- or 3-point favorites in a game with an O/U of 49.5 points. As part of our College Football Championship Week predictions, my Georgia vs. Texas prediction expects the Longhorns to exact revenge for their early-season loss.

Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is set for 4 p.m. ET (ABC).

Georgia vs. Texas prediction & best pick

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Texas -2.5 () vs. Georgia ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Quintrevion Wisner Over 17.5 rushing attempts () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Georgia vs. Texas ATS prediction: SEC Championship

Texas to cover the spread: -2.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%

Georgia’s taxing win last week

My stance on this hasn't changed since I made by Georgia vs. Texas early pick.

Georgia’s comeback victory over Georgia Tech last week came at a price, as the two teams traded blows for eight overtimes. The eight-overtime game was the longest involving an SEC team and the second-longest game in FBS history.

The win was historic. Georgia's victory after trailing 17-0 was its largest comeback in a home game since the SEC expanded in 1992. It also made the Bulldogs the first top-10 team to overcome a 17-point halftime deficit since Auburn in 2010 at Alabama.

Not only did the win take a lot out of the Bulldogs, but it also showed their flaws. Meanwhile, Texas dominated Texas A&M 17-7, holding the Aggies to their fewest points since 2019. It was also the first time Texas A&M did not score an offensive touchdown since 2021.

Don’t underestimate Texas’ resume

Texas was ranked second in the latest College Football Playoff ranking, its highest-ever CFP ranking in school history. To accomplish that feat in its first year in the SEC is remarkable.

Many will be quick to point out that the Longhorns did not face the hardest gauntlet they could have while playing in the SEC, but their resume speaks for itself.

Texas outscored opponents 228-118 in conference play. It is 1-1 against the current CFP top 25 but has a third-ranked Strength of Record (according to ESPN Analytics) and the 32nd-ranked Strength of Schedule. 

Georgia is a poor ATS team

Georgia has covered just three of 12 games this season, which marks its worst ATS record in a season since going 3-9-1 ATS in 2013.

Kirby Smart has also never won an SEC Championship outright as an underdog. His Bulldogs lost 37-10 in 2019 to LSU, and 35-28 the year before to Alabama.

I am backing Texas at anything less than a field goal as a three-star play, as favorites have won 25 of the 31 SEC Championships outright since 1992.

All of our best sports betting apps that offer Texas at -2.5 do so at -120 odds. At that price, a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.33.

Georgia vs. Texas best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Quintrevion Wisner Over 17.5 rushing attempts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Since the Week 8 loss to Georgia, Wisner’s floor seems to be 17 rushing attempts, a number he has totaled in four of the previous five games.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian seemed to trust Wisner more as the season went on. Wisner had eight or fewer carries through the first three games and 13 or more carries in all but one game since.

Between Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, Longhorns quarterbacks attempted 49 passes in the first meeting with Georgia, and the Bulldogs recorded seven sacks. I expect Sarkisian will look to better protect his quarterbacks this week by establishing a sound running game.

Wisner comes in with great momentum, as his 186 rushing yards last week were the fourth-most by a Longhorns player against Texas A&M all-time. And with a week off between the SEC Championship and the playoffs, he should receive another big workload.

In my Georgia vs. Texas player props I also have a value play on the running back's first-half touchdown prop.

Georgia vs. Texas odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Georgia vs. Texas live odds

Georgia vs. Texas opening odds:

• Georgia +1.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
• Texas -1.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

Georgia vs. Texas game info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 7
• Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
• How to watch: ABC
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Texas -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

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