Florida State vs. Miami Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 9

The rivalry between the Florida State Seminoles and Miami Hurricanes has produced some of the most memorable moments in college football history, and the in-state rivals renew that rivalry this Saturday night at 7 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

• Florida State’s 1-6 start is its worst since 1975, the season before Bobby Bowden took over as head coach
• The Seminoles are the first preseason AP top-10 team to start 1-6 or worse since 1989
• Miami leads the all-time series against Florida State 35-33, with the Seminoles winning last year’s contest 27-20.

As part of our Week 9 college football predictions, our Florida State vs. Miami prediction recognizes that this is a rivalry game but also predicts the Hurricanes will use their massive talent edge to embarrass their in-state rivals.

Best Florida State vs. Miami picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Miami -20.5 () vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Cam Ward Over 2.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida State vs. Miami against the spread prediction: Week 9

Miami to cover the spread: +20.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida State vs. Miami opening odds:

• Florida State: +19.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Miami: -19.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Cam Ward’s Heisman case

Ward has as good of a case at this point to win the Heisman Trophy of any player in the country, a fact that's reflected in the Heisman Trophy odds.

Compared to the last three Heisman winners’ (Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, and Bryce Young) statistics through seven games, Ward’s 2,538 passing yards are the most of the four, his 24 touchdown passes are tied for the most, and his 45 completions of 20 or more yards are also the most.

Ward leads the country in total points responsible for (166). And while the most recurring stat you will hear all week is that Miami’s offense is No. 1 in yards per game (577.3), the Hurricanes also rank in the top four nationally in third-down conversion percentage (60.2%), total first downs (195), team passing efficiency (183.04) and time of possession (34:09).

Florida State can’t expose Miami’s weaknesses

Miami’s defense entered last week’s game against Louisville ranked 18th in Line Yards, fourth in Pass Success, and third in Havoc. And while it was a shock to see the Hurricanes allow Tyler Shough to throw for 342 yards and four touchdowns, Miami should find the same success it had early in the season against Florida State.

Seminoles quarterback Brock Glenn has completed just 50% of his passes and has thrown more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two). He had three turnovers (a pick-six, fumble, and interception) on three consecutive plays in the team’s first-ever loss to Duke.

Miami will make Florida State one-dimensional

Miami ranks second in the ACC and eighth nationally allowing just 92 rushing yards per game. And if the Hurricanes again race out to a big early lead, their pass rush will get to pin their ears back and attack Glenn in the passing game.

The Hurricanes rank in the top 10 in total sacks (23) and sacks per game (3.29). Miami is also 14th or better in tackles for loss per game (7.6) and third-down conversion percentage defense (.299).

This wager bucks Miami’s trend of ATS struggles against in-state schools at home. The Hurricanes are 9-18-1 ATS in home games against teams from Florida over the last 20 years and have covered 16 of the 20 games against those schools at neutral sites or on the road.

Nevertheless, I do not expect Miami head coach Mario Cristobal to miss an opportunity to run it up on a weak Florida State team. 

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering lower than three-touchdown spread, so I do not mind paying slightly more in juice at FanDuel, as my $10 winning wager would still pay out $18.70.

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

Florida State vs. Miami best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Cam Ward Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cam Ward is one of two FBS quarterbacks (Kyle McCord of Syracuse is the other) to throw for 300-plus yards in every game this season. Ward was also just the third FBS quarterback over the last 25 years to throw for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in the first five starts of a season while also leading his team to a 5-0 record.

Ward leads the nation in Total QBR, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and total yards. But he is also second in passing efficiency, third in yards per pass attempt, and sixth in passing yards per completion (15.02).

Ward has thrown fewer than three touchdowns just once this season, so I do not agree with the Under on his 2.5 passing touchdowns being the more heavily juiced side (-120).

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Florida State vs. Miami odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Florida State vs. Miami game info

• When: Saturday, Oct. 26
• Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 79 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NE
• Favorite: Miami -21 (-110 via BetMGM)

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