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Florida State vs. Duke Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's Game

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 18, 2024 3:49 PM EDT • 4 min 7 sec read.

Florida State Seminoles quarterback Brock Glenn throws the ball against the Clemson Tigers as we offer our Florida State vs. Duke prediction.
Florida State Seminoles quarterback Brock Glenn throws the ball against the Clemson Tigers. Photo by Melina Myers via Imagn Images

The Florida State Seminoles put their 22-game winning streak against the Duke Blue Devils on the line when the teams meet in Durham Friday evening for the first time since 2017. 

  • Duke has the ninth-best ACC Championship odds, while Florida State is tied for the 12th-best odds
  • Duke enters Friday's game as the favorites against Florida State for the first time
  • The spread has stayed steady throughout the week, with the Blue Devils favored by three points at four of our best sports betting apps hours before game time. FanDuel has the Blue Devils at -2.5

Our Florida State vs. Duke prediction, part of our Week 8 college football predictions, expects the Blue Devils to break the seemingly perpetual streak and win their first-ever game against the Seminoles. 

Best Florida State vs. Duke picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Duke -3 (-105 via BetMGM) vs. Florida State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Brock Glenn Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+190 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Florida State vs. Duke against the spread prediction: Week 8

Duke to cover the spread: -3 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida State vs. Duke opening odds:

  • Florida State: +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Duke: -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Duke motivated to end the streak

Florida State’s 22 wins against Duke without a loss are the most by one school over a current Power 4 team without a loss since 1936. However, oddsmakers are tipping their hands that the streak should end, as Duke will kick off as the favorite in this matchup for the first time.

If there is any Blue Devils coach best suited to end this long losing streak against Florida State, it is Manny Diaz. He spent three years as the head coach at Miami, going 2-1 against the Seminoles with a +56 point differential.

New Seminoles quarterback, same poor results

Diaz was generous in his praise for the Seminoles under redshirt freshman quarterback Brock Glenn, who took over as the starter for the ineffective DJ Uiagalelei in the last game against Clemson. Diaz said, “More than anything, it feels like the team has fire and energy behind [Glenn].” 

Granted, making your first start against a top-15 Clemson team is not easy, but the Seminoles still only produced 250 total yards. They averaged 5.6 yards per pass and had 22 rushing yards on 23 attempts.

Special teams is the only thing the Seminoles have going for them

You know it has been a disappointing year when seemingly the only thing Florida State is atop any rankings for is special teams accomplishments.

Florida State is tied for first in the nation in blocked kicks, all field goals. In addition, it leads the ACC and ranks second in the country in net punting average, and kicker Ryan Fitzgerald is one of three kickers to have made multiple field goals of 54-plus yards this year.

On Tuesday, BetMGM was the only top sports betting site that offered Duke -3, albeit at -120 odds. Now almost all of its competitors are aligned at -3 with varying levels of juice, and there is more value now for Duke backers if one can stomach the line movement going against the favorites.

A $10 winning wager at BetMGM’s -105 odds would pay out $19.52.

Best odds: -105 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Florida State vs. Duke best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Brock Glenn Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+190) ⭐⭐⭐

This aggressive player prop wager takes advantage of generous plus-money odds and doubles down on Duke covering the game spread, as its best chance to do so is on the backs of a solid defensive performance.

Despite Duke’s 24-14 loss to Georgia Tech in its last game, its defensive strengths showed up once again. The Blue Devils ranked 10th in Pass Success and third in Havoc to enter the game and then held Hayden King to 167 passing yards. 

The way to attack the Duke defense is on the ground, as it ranked 116th in terms of PFF tackling grades, but 10th in coverage entering the Georgia Tech game.

Glenn threw two touchdowns in his first start against Clemson, but the volume was there with a negative game script leading to 41 pass attempts. Given that his passing yards O/U is 203.5, that suggests fewer passing attempts, and Duke entered its last game stingy in the red zone with a No. 14 ranking in Finishing Drives.

Through bet365’s +190 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $19 in profits.

Our Shane Jackson is fading the passer on the other side as part of his college football Week 8 player props.

Best odds: +190 via Sportsbook | Implied probability: 34.48%

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Florida State vs. Duke odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Florida State vs. Duke game info

  • When: Friday, Oct. 18
  • Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: Wallace Wade Stadium (Durham, N.C.)
  • How to watch: ESPN2
  • Weather: 54 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph N
  • Favorite: Duke -3 (-105 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”