Machibet BetFlorida State vs. Syracuse Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Orange Look to Snap Losing Streak

Home teams have won seven of nine head-to-head meetings between the Florida Seminoles and Syracuse Orange dating back to 2005.

A pair of six-win ACC teams that trend in opposite directions collide on Saturday night as the Seminoles travel to Upstate New York to face the Orange.

Florida State (6-3 ATS, 4-5 O/U) managed to rebound from a three-game conference losing streak with wins in each of its previous two matchups . Last week the Seminoles completely dismantled in-state rival Miami en route to a 42-point road victory.

Meanwhile, Syracuse (6-3 ATS, 3-6 O/U) comes into Saturday’s contest mired in its own three-game skid. The Orange coughed up an 11-point lead in the fourth quarter against Clemson for their first loss and have been unable to get back on track since.

Here are our Week 11 college football Florida State vs. Syracuse betting picks (odds via BetMGM and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale)

Florida State vs. Syracuse Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Location: JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY
Weather: Indoors

Florida State vs. Syracuse Odds

Florida State vs. Syracuse Odds Analysis

Oddsmakers first installed Florida State as a six-point road favorite. The market moved in favor of the Seminoles throughout the week. Now FSU is laying more than a touchdown. Bettors can find the spread ranging from Florida State -7 to -8 depending on the sportsbook.

As far as the game total, the market came down slightly from an opening line of 52.5. The current market consensus sits at 51, but there are half-point deviations available at select shops.

A couple of things stand out when it comes to the betting splits for this game. First and foremost, 68% of total bets that are on the Over have only accounted for 13% of the handle at DraftKings.

As for the spread, Syracuse attracted a decent amount (43%) of bets as the home underdog. However, nearly 70% of all money wagered on the point spread is on Florida State.

Florida State vs. Syracuse Picks

Side: Florida State -7 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
Total: Under 51 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★
Prop: Jordan Travis Passing Yards — Under 235.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ★★★

Florida State vs. Syracuse ATS Pick

Florida State -7 (-110) ★★★★

With most of the betting market listing Florida State as a 7.5 or 8-point favorite, bettors should target the optimal value at BetMGM. There are several reasons to be confident in the Seminoles to not only win but do so by more than a touchdown.

Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader actually missed last week’s meeting against Pittsburgh with an injury. Head coach Dino Babers offered very little clarity on whether or not Shrader would return this week.

If the Orange hope to be competitive, Shrader's health looms large. Syracuse’s offense was virtually nonexistent in his absence last week. Pitt stacked the box against star tailback Sean Tucker and SU finished with only 145 total offensive yards.

On the other side of the ball, Florida State should have a profound advantage in the trenches. Syracuse’s defensive front is severely undersized and will struggle to hold up against FSU's big offensive linemen.

Given the advantage the Seminoles are likely to have along the line of scrimmage, it's likely that running backs Lawrance Toafilli and Trey Benson will feature heavily in the game plan. After gashing Miami for 229 yards on the ground, FSU's rushing attack could be in store for another big effort.

Florida State vs. Syracuse O/U Pick

Under 51 (-110) ★★

Regardless of whether Shrader plays, Syracuse’s defense must keep things close against a more talented and physically dominant opponent. The Orange rank college football's 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency. In addition, Syracuse held opponents to 20 points or less in four of six home games this season.

After starting the year off with some poor showings, Florida State improved drastically on defense. The Noles come into Saturday’s contest ranked 39th in overall adjusted efficiency and held four of their last six opponents to 17 points or fewer.

FSU was particularly vulnerable against the run early this season but has consistently improved in that area. Tucker could struggle to get much going on the ground once again no matter who's under center for the Orange.

Florida State's offensive game plan is another element to consider. Given the massive size advantage that the Seminoles’ O-line has over Syracuse's D, there’s no reason not run the ball. A run-heavy game script should keep the clock moving and shorten the game.

Florida State vs. Syracuse Prop Pick

Travis passing yards: Under 235.5 (-114) ★★★

Florida State beat Miami by 42 points last week despite quarterback Jordan Travis attempting only 12 passes. In all likelihood, the junior signal-caller will throw at least a few more times this Saturday night. However, it could take a significant number of attempts for Travis to clear the passing yardage prop total of 235.5.

Once again, it’s worth repeating that the Seminoles would prefer to run the football. Because Syracuse's defense is so undersized up front, opponents prioritize attacking the Orange on the ground all season long. SU allows nearly as many rushing yards per-game (154.9) as passing yards (184.1).

It’s also interesting to note that Travis' 202 passing yards last week are the most he's thrown in any true road contest this season. Unless the Seminoles find themselves trailing, they likely won’t need him to air it out in this game.

Where to Bet on Florida State vs. Syracuse Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Florida State vs. Syracuse picks made 11/11/2022 at 4:45 p.m. ET

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.