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Florida State vs. Miami Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Seminoles Favored in Rivalry Game

Philip Wood

Last Updated: November 5, 2022 8:13 AM EDT • 2 min 33 sec read.

A road win over the Miami Hurricanes in Week 10 would go a long way to helping the Florida State Seminoles becoming bowl eligible. Read on for our top Florida State-Miami picks and predictions. 

Last week, the Seminoles ended a three-game losing streak by easily taking care of business against Georgia Tech. The Seminoles have yet to lose to a team not ranked in the top 25, which gives them a decided advantage over Miami.

The Hurricanes are 4-4, and they are coming off a quadruple-overtime win over Virginia. Their four wins this season are against the aforementioned Cavaliers and Virginia Tech, the two bottom-dwellers in the ACC Coastal, and Bethune Cookman and Southern Miss. They are also one of the worst teams in college football against the spread, recording a record of just 1-7.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 10 game between Florida State and Miami (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 10.

Florida State vs. Miami Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 73 degrees, 56% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds

Florida State vs. Miami Odds

Florida State vs. Miami Odds Analysis

The spread has dropped from the consensus opening line of Florida State -9 to -7.5 as of early Saturday afternoon. The Seminoles have drawn 65% of the tickets but a more modest 59% of the handle to suggest some sharp money may be on Miami.

The Over/Under is up from the opening line of 52 to 54 with 94% of the handle on 79% of the tickets backing the Over.

Florida State vs. Miami Picks

  • Spread: Florida State -7.5 (-106 via FanDuel)
  • Over/Under: Over 52.5 (-112 via FanDuel)
  • Prop bet: Florida State -4 first half (-110 via DraftKings)

Florida State vs. Miami ATS Pick

Florida State -7.5 (-106) ★★★★

The underdog has covered in three of the last four meetings between these two, including last season when the Seminoles won outright at +2.5. Though the Hurricanes could certainly show up at home against their rivals, this is likely going to go poorly for Miami.

The Seminoles are averaging 32.1 points per game, and the Hurricanes have shown no signs that they can keep up with such a performance on offense. The Canes have scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games, but they also lost two of those games by two possessions or more.

Florida State has done a number on teams with lackluster offenses this season, defeating Georgia Tech by 25 and Boston College by 30. Miami’s offense is better than both of those, but not enough to keep this within one score.

Florida State vs. Miami O/U Pick

Over 52.5 (-112) ★★★

The Hurricanes’ defense has shown flashes of brilliance this year, but it also gave up 45 points to both Duke and Middle Tennessee at home. If the Seminoles are able to put points on the board early, then this is quickly going to become a shootout.

Against Duke, the 'Canes fell behind 17-7, and while playing catchup, the defense gave up plenty of points. The same thing happened against Middle Tennessee. Miami went into the halftime locker room down 24-10, and then it traded touchdowns the rest of the game.

The Seminoles have scored 40 or more points three times this season, and they have scored at least 21 in all but one of their games.

Florida State vs. Miami Prop Pick

Florida State -4 first half (-105) ★★★

The Seminoles have been great in first halves this season, leading at the break in four of their five wins. They also led 17-3 at halftime on the road at NC State.

Miami, on the other hand, has had no such success. In addition to trailing against Duke and Middle Tennessee, the Hurricanes have been behind at the break in two of their other six games, and they led by just three against Virginia and Southern Miss.

With how these teams are playing, it would be worth taking this all the way up to 6.5.

Where to Bet on Florida State-Miami Picks

Florida State-Miami picks made 11/03/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET

Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.