Duke vs. Northwestern Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 2

The picturesque look of Northwestern's will be a nice juxtaposition for the bloodbath set for Friday at 9 p.m. ET (FS1) from Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium in Evanston, Ill. 

• Two defensive-minded head coaches are the focus of our our Duke vs. Northwestern prediction.
• The Wildcats are 2.5-point home favorites at our top college football betting sites.
• This might be the most evenly matched game of our Week 2 college football predictions.

Best Duke vs. Northwestern picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Spread pick: Duke +2.5 () ⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop: Maalik Murphy Under 204.5 passing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Duke vs. Northwestern spread prediction: Week 2

Duke +2.5 (-104) ⭐⭐⭐

Neither of these teams were overly impressive in Week 1. Duke was up only 10-0 on Elon at halftime before winning 26-3, and Northwestern clawed its way to a 13-6 win over Miami (Ohio).

One thing is for certain: this is going to be a defensive battle between David Braun's Wildcats and Manny Diaz's Blue Devils. 

But the difference is that Duke actually has some legitimate talent to lean on in the run game whereas Northwestern was 93rd in EPA per pass and 112th in EPA per rush last season. 

Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright was uninspring in his debut as Northwestern's starting QB, and now has to deal with a Diaz defense that's 26th in .

The run game can beat them blue and white 

For as strong as Braun's defense was last year, it was noticeably worse against the run. It ranked 63rd in EPA per rush and allowed the most rushing yards per game in the Big Ten (159.5).

The Blue Devils have two capable running backs in Jaquez Moore and Star Thomas, and were 25th in EPA per rush last season. Texas transfer Maalik Murphy also gives them a potential running threat at QB.

Behind its rushing attack, Duke can keep this close, if not win it - a 23-17 victory for the Blue Devils. If Duke covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.62 profit.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 50.98%

Duke vs. Northwestern player prop

Maalik Murphy Under 204.5 passing yards (-101) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This bet has less to do with Murphy and more to do with our best best sports betting sites being all over the place on his passing yards line.  

Murphy's passing yards are set at 196.5 with the Under at -115 at FanDuel and BetMGM while Cesars has it nearly 10 yards higher at a better value - a $10 winning bet at this price pays a $9.90 profit.

While Murphy did throw for 291 yards in his Duke debut, it was against an FCS team, and Northwestern's pass defense is legit. It allowed the 13th-fewest passing yards per game among power conference teams last season (192.1).

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 50.25%

Duke vs. Northwestern odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Duke vs. Northwestern game info

• When: Friday, Sept. 6
• Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium (Evanston, Ill.)
• How to watch: FS1
• Weather: 61 degrees, 15-mph winds, 20% chance of precipitation
• Favorite: Northwestern -2.5 ()

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