Mcb777 CricketCollege Football Over/Under Picks for Week 11: Reinvigorated Irish Offense to Carry Total against Navy

A loaded college football slate week offers plenty of value in Week 11 when it comes to the Over/Under markets.

The Michigan-Rutgers game turning into a high-scoring affair in the first half cost us a perfect week in Week 10. But a 2-for-3 showing makes for eight of our last nine as we look to tackle misaligned totals to keep the good vibes rolling.

Below, we look at the Over/Under bets of college football Week 11 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, and BetMGM).

Top Over/Under Picks for College Football Week 11

Purdue-Illinois Under 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
Liberty-UConn Over 46.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ★★★★
Notre Dame-Navy Over 42.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ★★★★

Check out our top college football against-the-spread picks for Week 11!

Week 11 College Football Over/Under Picks

Purdue-Illinois Under 47.5 (-110) ★★★★

Illinois suffered a tough loss as a home favorite to Michigan State last week, but the Illini defense still put together a respectable showing that keeps them in the top five in defensive efficiency in FBS. Sparty got the 23-15 win, tying the most points scored against Illinois this season with Indiana’s output back on September 2.

In the six games sandwiched in between, Illinois allowed a grand total of 42 points. Even in the Michigan State loss on Saturday, the Illini allowed just 294 yards of total offense, maintaining the second-best average in the country at 246.9 yards allowed per game this season. So the red zone defense didn’t go their way, but the quality of this defense is still undeniable.

Purdue games are 6-3 on Overs as the Boilermakers average 26.1 points per game with the No. 57 defense efficiency. But Purdue scored only three points last week against another top five defense, hosting Iowa. That suggests this offense may not be in a place to challenge Illinois’ defense very successfully on the road. Illinois scores just 24 PPG and should be able to clamp down to extend its trend of going 2-6-1 on Overs this season.

Liberty-UConn Over 46.5 (-115) ★★★★

Liberty has the No. 27 defensive efficiency in the country and is 4-5 on Overs this season. But the Flames have also had a couple of clunkers along the way where that supposedly stout defense gave pedestrian efforts against some really pitiful offenses.

The Flames allowed 24 points to UMass (No. 130 in offensive efficiency) and Old Dominion (No. 103 in offensive efficiency), and 27 points to Southern Miss (11th in offensive efficiency). UConn is another bad offense (114th in offensive efficiency), averaging under 20 PPG at home. But the Huskies have won two in a row. Even 16 or 17 points from UConn should allow Liberty’s offense to do the rest.

The Flames aren’t well-respected in offensive efficiency (No. 80 in FBS) but they’ve done their job in dismantling the bad defenses on their schedule, averaging 31.1 PPG. Liberty has thrice scored 36+ points on the road this year, and also boasts a 41-point output against BYU at home. UConn’s defense (No. 92 in defensive efficiency) is ripe for the picking.

Notre Dame-Navy Over 42.5 (-105) ★★★★

Notre Dame is 57th in offensive efficiency and 19th in defensive efficiency in FBS, a recipe that explains the Irish’s slight lean toward Unders on the season (4-5 on Overs). But Notre Dame has legitimately kicked it up a notch in recent weeks, scoring at a rate that should not be ignored when betting totals moving forward.

When Notre Dame hung 44 on UNLV a few weeks ago, it wasn’t cause for celebration given the Rebels’ generally porous defense. But when the Irish kept it going against two top 30 defenses the last two weeks at Syracuse (41 points) and hosting Clemson (35 points), that demanded some attention.

For three weeks in a row, Notre Dame has flirted with scoring near this game total on its own. This week is a neutral site game in Baltimore against Navy, which has the No. 61 defensive efficiency in FBS. The Midshipmen inherently limit possessions with their run-dominant style of play, but six of their last eight games have gone over this total. Finally awakened, Notre Dame’s offense is in position to carry that trend forward.

Where to Bet on College Football Over/Under Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Week 11 Over/Under college football picks made 11/7/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET

Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer

Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.