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College Football Best Bets for Saturday: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions for Week 10

Henry John

Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 4 min 61 sec read.

Our top college football best bets for Week 12.
Our top college football best bets for Week 13.

Our Week 10 college football best bets column includes multiple plays on teams from the Lone Star State as well as a sneaky Mountain West underdog.

From a pair of SEC showdowns between top-10 teams to a massive matchup between ranked Big 12 teams and several high-stakes conference matchups around the country, the Week 10 college football schedule packs quite a punch. From a betting standpoint, there are plenty of smelly lines and opportunities for chaos. 

At this point in the year, bettors have to be extremely cautious when betting on highly-regarded teams. More often than not, favorites tend to be overpriced later in the season and thus carry little to no value.

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college football slate (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook).

Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 10.

Saturday’s College Football Schedule and Odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Saturday’s College Football Best Bets

  • Moneyline: Texas (-135 via DraftKings)
  • Spread: Texas A&M -3 (-110 via FanDuel)
  • Total: Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech Under 41.5 (-110 via Caesars)
  • Upset: UNLV (+220 via FanDuel)
  • Prop: Israel Abanikanda Over 114.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

Top College Football Picks for Saturday

Moneyline: Texas (-135)

When searching for contrarian betting angles, there’s nothing like a proverbial college football matchup triangle. Two weeks ago, the world watched as Texas melted down on the road in a loss to Oklahoma State. While the Longhorns had a bye last week to lick their wounds, Kansas State went out and rolled to a 48-0 shutout victory over the aforementioned Cowboys.

Based on the last two weeks, conventional logic would suggest that Kansas State has to beat Texas at home, right? Sure enough, the majority of both ATS and moneyline bets are on the Wildcats. However, it’s the Longhorns who have taken a larger percentage of the total handle in both areas. The line has also moved from a pick’em to Texas -2.5.

While public bettors scratch their heads wondering how the Longhorns are favored on the road, we’ll look to back the more talented team on the moneyline. Even if Adrian Martinez proves healthy enough to return at quarterback for K-State, Texas will provide a whole lot more defensive resistance than what the banged-up Oklahoma State outfit could muster up last week. 

Spread: Texas A&M -3 (-110)

It’s no secret that Texas A&M has failed to live up to expectations this season. After starting the year ranked No. 6 in the AP Poll, the Aggies enter Saturday’s matchup against Florida two games below .500. With A&M having lost four straight games, it’s worth noting that the program has not endured a five-game losing streak since the early 1980s.

Outside of a road loss to Tennessee last month, Florida’s passing attack has struggled mightily. Not only is quarterback Anthony Richardson banged up coming into Week 10, but he will have to contend with a Texas A&M defense that has allowed the 11th fewest passing yards per game to opponents.

On the flip side, Florida has been downright awful on defense. In terms of overall adjusted efficiency, the Gators rank 67th out of 131 FBS teams while Texas A&M is 17th. There’s no disputing that the Aggies’ D will be the best unit on the field in this matchup. That alone is reason to lay the short number, but it’s worth noting the upward trajectory of the offense as well.

Last week, Texas A&M true freshman QB Conner Weigman had a whale of a collegiate debut, albeit in defeat. The Aggies’ passing attack looked the best it has all season. Combine that with a favorable matchup for running back Devin Achane and one has to believe A&M has the goods to cover as a 3-point favorite at home.

Total: Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech Under 41.5 (-110)

Fans of high-quality offense probably won’t want to tune into this ACC Coastal Division clash between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech. There are several terrible offenses across the conference this year, and both of these teams certainly fall into that category.

Only twice all season has Georgia Tech scored more than 16 points against FBS-level competition. In a similar vein, Virginia Tech has topped 21 points against FBS opposition on only two occasions. Oddly enough, excluding games against FCS schools, the highest-scoring output of the season for both teams was against Pittsburgh.

Coming into Saturday’s head-to-head meeting, the Hokies rank 107th out of 131 FBS teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. Incredibly, the Yellow Jackets are even worse at No. 112. To help put just how bad those adjusted efficiency rankings are, note that there are only three other Power 5 schools (Boston College, Rutgers, Colorado) that rank worse.

Without a doubt, the defenses for both teams are primed to overshadow the offenses in this matchup. In particular, Georgia Tech’s defensive line will easily be the most talented unit on the field. With the majority of sportsbooks listing the Over/Under line at 40.5, bettors are advised to capitalize on the extra point of value available via Caesars.

Upset: UNLV (+220)

After starting the year off 4-1, UNLV lost three straight games by a combined margin of 91 points. On the surface, it’s hard to rationalize backing the Rebels to pull off an outright upset on the road against a San Diego State team that has actually shown signs of life offensively the last two weeks.

What those who aren’t in tune with UNLV football may not know is that quarterback Doug Brumfield was a nonfactor in each of the recent lopsided defeats after sustaining a concussion in the first quarter against San Jose State on October 7. The Rebels’ offense turned into a pumpkin without him. On the heels of last week’s bye, Brumfield returned to practice and is expected to start on Saturday night.

There’s a good chance that UNLV will also get lead running back Aidan Robbins back from a knee injury as well. While San Diego State is rock solid defensively, the Aztecs rank 127th out of 131 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency. Case in point, Brumfield won’t necessarily have to be a world-beater in his first game back to guide the Rebels to an upset win.

Prop: Israel Abanikanda Over 114.5 rushing yards (-114)

Pittsburgh running back Israel Abanikanda is having a monster junior season thus far. Coming into Saturday’s matchup against Syracuse, the Brooklyn native has rushed for at least 127 yards in six of the last seven games. The high-water mark came in the form of an incredible 320-yard performance four weeks ago against Virginia Tech.

Volume is of little to no concern for Abanikanda as he has seen at least 25 carries in five games this season. This week figures to be no different, especially given the favorable matchup for Pitt’s offensive line against an undersized Syracuse defensive front.

Syracuse may be holding a Top 25 ranking, but the defense has been gashed on the ground recently. After allowing 293 rushing yards to Clemson, the Orange gave up another 246 to Notre Dame last week. 

An undersized defensive line may have been able to hold up against weaker opponents, but the unit has now been exposed in each of the last two weeks. Bettors should fully expect the Panthers to replicate that success on Saturday with Abanikanda being the featured ball carrier.

Where to Bet on College Football

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

College football best bets made on 11/4/2022 at 2:58 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.