College Football Playoff Semifinal Predictions: Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl Picks & Odds

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field is down to four after an exciting quarterfinal round. Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, and Texas are the semifinalists left standing after their decisive victories over the tournament's top four seeds.

Our College Football Playoff semifinal predictions highlight our favorite plays from the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl. These picks fade the college football championship odds favorite against the spread and envision a low-scoring affair in Miami.

Our best college football betting sites list Notre Dame (-1.5 vs. Penn State) and Ohio State (-6.5 vs. Texas) as the favorites to advance to the national title. The College Football Playoff will conclude on Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.

Best college football picks for CFP Round 3

College football odds subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Notre Dame-Penn State Under 47 ()  ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Texas +6.5 () vs. Ohio State  ⭐⭐⭐⭐

CFP semifinal college football odds & schedule

(Odds via BetMGM)

• Orange Bowl: Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Penn State; Thursday, Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
• Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-6.5) vs. Texas; Friday, Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

College football game predictions for the Orange Bowl

College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Notre Dame-Penn State Under 47 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

While this game is being played at the Miami Dolphins' home, Hard Rock Stadium, and the Over/Under looks like an NFL total, I assure you, this is a College Football Playoff contest. Notre Dame and Penn State have been two of the sport's best defenses all year. They've continued this high-level play against playoff-caliber competition, allowing a combined 51 points across 16 quarters in the postseason.

The Fighting Irish (No. 2 in points per game allowed) and Nittany Lions (No. 5) both boast top-five scoring defenses. They've surrendered 13.6 points and 15.8 points per game, respectively, and we don't expect much difference in the Orange Bowl.

Notre Dame and Penn State lean to the Under at a 16-13 clip this season, so we're sticking to the trends for this semifinal showdown. A 47-point total is high for two run-heavy, defensive football teams. Caesars has the best price on the market for the Under at standard juice.

College football game predictions for the Cotton Bowl

Texas +6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

This line screams - say it with me, class - overreaction. Ohio State finally seems to have lived up to its sky-high potential from preseason, and it's hard to pick against the Buckeyes at the moment. Furthermore, Texas played sloppy second-half football against Arizona State and very nearly paid the ultimate price for playing with its food.

At the end of the day, though, I don't believe Ohio State is six points better than the Longhorns.

Texas' roster is constructed similarly to a team that's given the Buckeyes issues over the last four years: Michigan. The Longhorns - like the Wolverines - lean on strong play in the trenches and expect to bully opponents every time they take the field. Steve Sarkisian's defense is much better than either Oregon's or Tennessee's, and it has the speed at every level to compete with its Big Ten adversary.

It's extremely difficult for teams to play three perfect games in a row, which Ohio State will attempt to do in the Cotton Bowl. This is also a quasi-home game for Texas, whose fans will undoubtedly dominate the crowd at AT&T Stadium. I'll refrain from making an outright prediction, but I believe the Longhorns will keep it closer than the spread at our best sportsbooks suggests.

College football betting odds pages

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