College Football Championship Odds: Should Ohio State Be The Favorite Heading Into Semis?

The first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff has lived up to the hype with all four of the top seeds that earned byes already eliminated heading into the semifinal. 

It's been the perfect season to implement the expanded College Football Playoff bracket with more parity this year than in recent memory, and plenty of debate over which teams are capable of winning the title.

Now with just four teams left, Ohio State's dominance in the first two rounds of the CFP has made the Buckeyes the overwhelming college football championship odds favorites.

Meanwhile, Texas, Notre Dame, and Penn State have all had easier routes to the final four on paper. So are Ohio State's odds at our college football betting sites justified, or should bettors be worried about Ryan Day and the team that no-showed against Michigan over a month ago?

College football championship odds 2025

Live college football championship odds from our best sports betting apps.

Ohio State (+110)

•  ranking (offense/defense): 1st (6th/1st)
•  per dropback/rush on offense: 3rd/8th
• EPA per dropback/rush on defense: 3rd/3rd

The Buckeyes should be the obvious favorites through two rounds of the College Football Playoff, but this price is brutal. Both things can be true.

Putting too much stock in the loss to Michigan is bad business ... that game will have been nearly six weeks ago by the time the Buckeyes' Cotton Bowl matchup with Texas takes place. This is a completely different team and both sides of the ball have looked like the best in the CFP.

The confidence Will Howard is playing with has made it hard to argue that he's not the top QB left in the playoff. He accounted for five big-time throws with zero turnover-worthy plays against Tennessee and Oregon, per .

And if he's playing like this, with Chip Kelly calling plays like it's the early 2010s in Eugene, can any defense stop the Buckeyes? Jeremiah Smith is turning in arguably the greatest freshman season any receiver has ever had, Emeka Egbuka is a potential first-round pick, and the running back tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins is one of the best in the nation.

The offensive line remains the concern with Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin out for the season, but the Volunteers and Ducks' front sevens barely made a scratch. The unsung hero of this team is guard Donovan Jackson, who has thrived at left tackle after kicking out in recent weeks. 

On paper, Texas is the second-most talented team left in the CFP, but if they can't stop the Buckeyes' offense. They aren't going to be able to score enough on this defense.

Ohio State has the best defense in the country, with all 11 starters likely to be playing on Sundays in the near future. Jack Sawyer and Tyleik Williams, in particular, have been unblockable and will hand Texas' O-line its biggest test of the year.

Betting Ohio State is the smart play, but this price is a little scary, with a $10 winning bet only paying an $11 profit. However, I do think the winner of the Cotton Bowl will defeat the winner of the Orange Bowl to take the championship.

Texas (+400)

• SP+ ranking (offense/defense): 5th (9th/2nd)
• EPA per dropback/rush on offense: 6th/9th
• EPA per dropback/rush on defense: 2nd/7th

Prior to Texas' OT win over Arizona State in the CFP quarterfinals, the Longhorns were the favorites to win it all at our best sports betting sites. The blown lead and near loss to the Sun Devils that needed a controversial reversal of a targeting call certainly should put doubts in the minds of Texas backers. 

With that said, Steve Sarkisian's roster is the only one besides Ohio State with a above 70% - it's 72% with Ohio State's at a whopping 90%. It's also uniquely built to challenge the Buckeyes.

If right tackle Cameron Williams can go in the Cotton Bowl - he missed the Peach Bowl, as detailed in our college football bowl game opt-out tracker - Texas has the best offensive line left in the CFP. With Williams and Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas has two potential first-round picks at tackle to do battle with the Buckeyes' ferocious pass rush.

When QB Quinn Ewers is protected, he's proven he can step up and make big plays. But the death of this team could be ill-timed throws, which Ewers is known for when he trusts his arm too much.

So if this offensive line can contain Ohio State's front seven, the defense is capable of taking advantage of the Buckeyes' banged-up O-line in a way Tennessee and Oregon failed to.

This front seven has Alfred Collins, Colin Simmons, Barryn Sorrell, Trey Moore, Vernon Broughton, and Anthony Hill Jr. That group might be second to only Ohio State's front seven, and if it can force Howard into poor decisions, Pete Kwiatkowski's unit has stars in the secondary in Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba.

Still, I don't trust Ewers, and Texas doesn't have a complete game-changer on its offense the way Ohio State does in Smith. If they do get past the Buckeyes, I think the Longhorns match up well with both Penn State and Notre Dame.

Notre Dame (+400)

• SP+ ranking (offense/defense): 7th (4th/4th)
• EPA per dropback/rush on offense: 30th/3rd
• EPA per dropback/rush on defense: 1st/9th

There's a real argument to be made that Marcus Freeman is the best coach in the College Football Playoff. Not only did he manage to keep the Irish fighting after arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, a 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois in September, but he just outcoached Kirby Smart in the Sugar Bowl.

The game management - specifically the punt run-off leading to the offsides on Georgia that allowed Notre Dame to bleed an extra five minutes off the clock - was incredible. But will that be enough for Notre Dame to overcome a sketchy passing attack and key defensive injuries?

It might be enough to defeat Penn State, but even then, I'm not so sure. The Nittany Lions just shut down Ashton Jeanty in the Fiesta Bowl, so will Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadrian Price really be able to do enough on the ground to win?

Even if they do, Leonard's sporadic at best and firmly the worst of the four remaining QBs in terms of pure passing. He's made just one big-time throw in the CFP and threw for only 90 yards against Georgia. So if the Irish fall behind by more than a score in the championship against Ohio State or Texas, I just don't see how he digs them out.

While the defense has been special for much of the season, despite losing star cornerback Benjamin Morrison early, the injury to Rylie Mills against Indiana can't be understated.

He's one of the best defensive tackles in the country and leads the team in sacks (7.5) and pressures (34). Without him, it allows offensive lines to focus more on stopping Howard Cross III and Junior Tuihalamaka.

Between Notre Dame's one-dimensional offense and the loss of Mills on defense, I have a difficult time seeing the Irish defeating the winner of the Cotton Bowl. I'm not so sure they'll beat Penn State either, though I lean toward Freeman's squad taking down James Franklin's in the Orange Bowl.

Penn State (+500)

• SP+ ranking (offense/defense): 8th (10th/7th)
• EPA per dropback/rush on offense: 2nd/16th
• EPA per dropback/rush on defense: 9th/6th

I think it's fair to say that Penn State has had the easiest path to the semifinal, which many believed would be the case when the CFP bracket was initially revealed. It's part of the reason some media members want the playoff to reseed after each round.

Regardless, the Nittany Lions are here and they do have the talent to reach the championship, even if I don't think they'll win it. When Drew Allar is on, he looks like a future No. 1 pick at QB - like we saw early against Boise State.

The problem is, the Penn State passing attack never seems to be on for four quarters. Even with star tight end Tyler Warren creating all kinds of mismatches, not having a superstar on the outside at wide receiver has hurt the Nittany Lions, and could be even more difficult against a Notre Dame defense that's No. 1 in EPA per dropback.

Even with two 1,000-yard rushers in Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, this offense is more efficient than it is explosive. That may not be a massive problem against a Notre Dame team that's basically running a single-wing offense, but what happens when Texas or Ohio State start hitting the big plays over the top? Can Penn State keep up?

The defense, especially the defensive line, is maybe Penn State's only shot at somehow winning the whole thing. Tom Allen's group stopped Jeanty and has the best defensive player in the CFP for my money in Abdul Carter.

While Carter exited early against Boise State, it sounds like he should be good to go against Notre Dame. He ranks eighth in the country in pressures (58) and is a rare talent who should climb the 2025 NFL Draft odds.

But Penn State has the lowest blue-chip ratio of the four remaining teams (61%) and I just don't think there's enough at receiver or in its secondary to compete with Ohio State or Texas.

College football championship FAQs

Who is the CFP National Championship favorite?

Ohio State is the favorite by the 2025 college football championship odds. The Buckeyes' best odds (+110) imply a 47.62% probability they'll win it all, according to our odds calculator.

Who won the CFP National Championship last year?

The Michigan Wolverines won their first title since 1997 by defeating the Washington Huskies in the 2024 national championship.

When will the CFP National Championship be decided?

The 2025 CFP National Championship will be decided on Monday, Jan. 20.

Where will the CFP National Championship take place?

The 2025 college football championship will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.

Who has won the most college football championships?

Yale has won the most college football championships with 18. Alabama ranks second with 16 total victories, and the Crimson Tide's three championships in the college football playoff era also stand as the most.

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