The USC Trojans have a new coaching staff and a new quarterback. How will those changes affect the best ways to bet on USC?

The Trojans were once perennial championship contenders under Pete Carroll. Since his departure, the Trojans have been led by such characters as Lane Kiffin, Ed Orgeron, and Steve Sarkisian. Clay Helton afforded USC some stability, but that came at the expense of mediocrity.

With head coach Lincoln Riley joining the team and bringing some of Oklahoma’s finest with him, the Trojans will look to win their first bowl game since the 2016-17 season. 

Below, we look at the best ways to bet on USC in 2022 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Best Bets for USC in 2022

2022 Predictions for USC

Over 6.5 regular-season conference wins (-160)

I don’t love the juice here, but USC has a better chance of getting at least seven conference wins than the books would have you believe. The Trojans' revitalized roster and new coaching staff should easily beat bad programs like Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, California, and Stanford. Those five schools make up the bottom five of the preseason Pac-12 poll.

With five safe conference wins in USC’s pocket, the Trojans need only to beat two of the following schools: Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, or UCLA. They outrank all but Utah in the preseason poll. The location of those games is a concern - they’ll only get to play Wazzu at home - but the Trojans can afford two road missteps and still cash this bet. 

Riley and quarterback Caleb Williams won eight Big 12 games last year. They also beat the Pac-12 runner-up, Oregon, in the Alamo Bowl. I have faith they’ll find similar success in a weaker conference.

To make the Pac-12 title game (+105)

This market is a three-horse race between USC, Utah, and Oregon. Though the Utes and Ducks have impressed lately, the Pac-12 recently reconfigured how to determine the conference champion. Instead of two division winners facing off, the two best teams in the conference will meet instead.

Oregon and Utah have a tougher schedule than USC. The Utes must play the Ducks and the Trojans, as well as the UCLA Bruins. And though the Ducks don’t have to play the Trojans, they’ll get the Utes, Bruins, and the Washington Huskies. Neither Oregon nor Utah will get to play all five of the preseason poll’s bottom schools. USC will. 

There’s also some market inefficiency at play here. The Trojans are favored to win the conference across the market, yet all three of USC, Utah, and Oregon have the same odds to actually qualify for the championship game.

Fewer regular-season wins than the 49ers (-135)

This is an odd market, but DraftKings Sportsbook is offering it anyway. The San Francisco 49ers, like every NFL team, will play 17 regular-season games. The Trojans will play just 12. Related betting markets reveal that San Francisco’s projected win total sits at 10, and USC’s sits at just 9.5. That likely accounts for the juice favoring the 49ers.

Still, the 49ers have a better shot of winning more games than the Trojans just because they’ll get more chances. Trey Lance looked great in his first preseason appearance, and he should take a big leap this year. The 49ers could realistically win 11 to 12 games as a result. They’ll play a bunch of bad teams, including Seattle, Carolina, Washington, Chicago, and Atlanta. Games against Las Vegas, Miami, New Orleans, Arizona, and Denver should all be competitive, and an upset win over the L.A. Rams, Kansas City, L.A. Chargers, or Tampa Bay could be in the cards.

Where to Bet on the College Football Futures

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Best way to bet on USC picks made on 8/14/2022 at 2:12 p.m. ET.