Baylor vs. LSU Prediction & Picks: Texas Bowl Odds

This year’s Texas Bowl serves as a chance for either Baylor (8-4) or LSU (8-4) to enter 2025 with some momentum when they square off at 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) on Tuesday in NRG Stadium.

The Bears have won six in a row, including a 45-17 thumping of the Kansas Jayhawks in the regular-season finale. The Tigers earned back-to-back wins to close out the regular season, but they enter this showdown more depleted due to opt-outs and injuries.

Baylor is a 3.5-point favorite ahead of this New Year's Eve matchup.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

Baylor vs. LSU prediction & best pick: Texas Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: LSU +3.5 () vs. Baylor ⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Garrett Nussmeier Over 1.5 touchdown passes () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Baylor vs. LSU ATS prediction

LSU to cover the spread: +3.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%

This spread has moved all the way from LSU -3 to Baylor -3.5 due to the best sports betting sites reacting to information. Will Campbell, Emery Jones, Kyren Lacy, and Mason Taylor have all opted out for the Tigers.

But now that this line is past a key number (3), I have no choice but to take the points with the better program. The market can sometimes overreact to information, especially for a team like LSU, which has quality depth behind its NFL-bound players.

Lacy is the latest LSU receiver leaping the pros, but that just allows someone like Kylan Billiot (four-star freshman) to mesh with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who might be the best player in this game. 

I’m comfortable backing the Tigers at +3.5 or better in this one.

Baylor vs. LSU best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Garrett Nussmeier Over 1.5 touchdown passes ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -130 via bet365 | Implied probability: 56.52%

Nussmeier finished his first season as LSU’s starting quarterback with 3,739 yards and 26 touchdowns. He threw multiple passing touchdowns in eight games, including the season's first six contests.

This line is as high as -164 at some of our best sports betting apps, so Nussmeier’s chances of throwing multiple scores on Tuesday seem solid. I’d suggest taking advantage of this bargain at bet365 before kickoff.

Baylor vs. LSU odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Baylor vs. LSU live odds

Baylor vs. LSU opening odds:

• Baylor: +3 (-115)
• LSU: -3 (-105)

Baylor vs. LSU injuries

Texas Bowl game info

• When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Where: NRG Stadium (Houston)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Baylor -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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