Ashton Jeanty Player Prop Picks: CFP Fiesta Bowl Touchdown Prediction & Odds vs. Penn State

The Boise State Broncos (12-1) kick off their College Football Playoff campaign against the Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2) in the Fiesta Bowl. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

Our Ashton Jeanty player prop picks, part of our college bowl game predictions this week, expect the Heisman Trophy winner's numbers to dip against the best rush defense he's faced to date. However, can the Heisman Trophy runner-up do enough to keep his team in the dance?

Jeanty and the Broncos are 11-point underdogs at the best college football betting sites. This is a clear indication that oddsmakers expect the superstar to struggle to influence the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the rate he has been in regular-season games.

Ashton Jeanty prop bets CFP Fiesta Bowl

College football odds as of Tuesday and subject to change. Track the college football scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

• Ashton Jeanty touchdown pick: First-half touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐
• Ashton Jeanty Under 131.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Ashton Jeanty Over 12.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

College football picks made Tuesday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Ashton Jeanty touchdown pick vs. Penn State

Ashton Jeanty first-half touchdown scorer (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

Jeanty's stats speak for themselves, but one of the most impressive parts about his season is how he's influencing games early and often. The Doak Walker Award winner tallied 16 first-half touchdowns this season, and he scored in the opening half in 10 of Boise State's 13 games to date - good for a 76.92% rate during this stellar run.

While Penn State has surrendered just five first-half rushing touchdowns in the past 14 games, our best sportsbooks expect the Nittany Lions to win handily, so the game script gives Jeanty more opportunities to score in the first half. He's also got heavily juiced touchdown odds, so we're opting to play this market to find some value. DraftKings has the best price available at -105.

Best odds: -105 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 51.22%

Ashton Jeanty college football player props

Ashton Jeanty Under 131.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

As we detailed in our Penn State vs. Boise State player props, all eyes are on Jeanty as he needs 132 yards to break Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record. His total has increased by six yards in the days leading up to kickoff, and it now sits right on the record line. This has elevated the Under to a four-star play in my book.

The Nittany Lions have NFL-level athletes - like Abdul Carter - that the Broncos haven't seen this season. They also boast the best rush defense (No. 7 in rushing yards allowed) that Boise State has faced, with UNLV (No. 24) being the previous best.

Our Penn State vs. Boise State prediction suggests the Broncos will find themselves in a second-half hole. This means QB Maddux Madsen and the passing game will play a bigger role, leading to Jeanty getting fewer attempts down the stretch. A $10 winning wager on Jeanty's Under at BetMGM returns $8.70 in profit.

Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%

Ashton Jeanty Over 12.5 receiving yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This pick piggybacks off my previous play. No matter how the game is going for Boise State, head coach Spencer Danielson will want his best player on the field at all times. If the Broncos find themselves in a sizable hole, which odds suggest they will as a double-digit underdog, they simply cannot continue to force-feed Jeanty on the ground. It's not a practical approach in an elimination game against quality opposition.

Thus, we expect Jeanty to get more work in the passing game than he has in previous outings. This is a far more time-efficient way of getting the ball into the Heisman Trophy finalist's hands, should the situation call for it.

Jeanty's only cleared the 13-yard mark receiving three times this season, but he averaged just 1.5 receptions per game. He should double that in the Fiesta Bowl, meaning 13 yards should be an attainable goal. He's got a 53.49% implied probability of going Over, according to bet365's marginally juiced odds (-115).

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

College Football Playoff expert picks & CFP predictions

• Penn State vs. Boise State early picks
• Penn State vs. Boise State prediction
• Penn State vs. Boise State player props
• Penn State vs. Boise State parlay picks
• Ashton Jeanty player prop picks
• Texas vs. Arizona State early picks
• Texas vs. Arizona State prediction
• Texas vs. Arizona State player props
• Texas vs. Arizona State parlay
• Ohio State vs. Oregon early picks
• Ohio State vs. Oregon prediction
• Ohio State vs. Oregon player props
• Ohio State vs. Oregon parlay
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia early picks
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia prediction
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia player props
• Notre Dame vs. Georgia parlay
• CFP quarterfinal player prop bets
• CFP quarterfinal anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• CFP quarterfinal parlay picks

Penn State vs. Boise State odds

CFP Fiesta Bowl game info

• When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
• How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Penn State -11 (-110 via BetMGM)

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