Arizona vs. UCLA Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Bruins aim to Throttle Wildcats
Last Updated: January 1, 0001 12:00 AM EST • 2 min 21 sec read.
This weekend’s battle at the Rose Bowl pits one of the worst defenses in the country against an explosive Bruins offense. Read on for our Arizona Wildcats-UCLA Bruins picks.
Arizona has one of college football's most generous defenses this season. UCLA and its elite offense host the Wildcats in a game featuring the NCAAF's highest Over/Under this week.
Here are our Arizona-UCLA college football Week 11 picks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Arizona vs. UCLA Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
- Location: Rose Bowl Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
- Weather: 55 degrees, 0% Precipitation, 4-mph winds
Arizona vs. UCLA Odds
Arizona vs. UCLA Odds Analysis
UCLA opened as 18.5-point home favorites. The number moved further toward the Bruins to -19.5 (-110) at DraftKings and FanDuel. 78% of the money wagered on the spread has gone to UCLA.
The total dropped by half a point from the opening mark of 78 down to 77.5 (-110) at FanDuel, but came back up to the original line of 78 (-110) at DraftKings.
Arizona vs. UCLA Picks
Arizona vs. UCLA ATS Pick
UCLA -19.5 (-110) ★★★
At 2-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season, Arizona came off a 45-20 loss at Utah. Though UCLA’s defense isn’t as strong as the Utes, its offense is one of the truly elite this season.
UCLA averages 40+ points per game and faces a defense that essentially allows the same to its opponents. The Bruins rank college football's third in third-down conversion rate at 54.9%. Arizona’s defense is 126th in third-down defense, allowing a successful conversion to opponents 49.45% of the time.
The Wildcats are nightmarish against both the pass and the run. UCLA is insanely efficient at both. UCLA is 6-3 ATS this season. Though Arizona will certainly put points on the board against the Bruins’ 68th-ranked defensive efficiency, it’s genuinely possible that UCLA won’t need to punt a single time this game.
Arizona vs. UCLA O/U Pick
Over 77.5 (-110) ★★★★
This number is objectively preposterous, but it doesn’t take more than a glance at the trends for both sides to understand why 80+ points wouldn’t be a surprise for this game total.
UCLA games have gone 7-2 on Overs, while Bruins home games have gone 4-2 on Overs this season. Conference home games for UCLA are 2-for-3 in clearing 70+ points, as when the Bruins faced the Washington Huskies (17th in offensive efficiency, 76th in defensive efficiency) and Utah Utes (16th in offensive efficiency, 23rd in defensive efficiency).
Arizona is an almost impossible combination of 26th in FBS offensive efficiency, but 125th in defensive efficiency. Arizona averaged 32 points per game on the road this season, while allowing 40.75 points per road game to opponents. Overall, the Wildcats gave up 39.5 PPG, 126th of the 131 FBS teams.
Arizona vs. UCLA Prop Pick
UCLA team total Over 48.5 (-118) ★★★★
The team with the No. 5 FBS offensive efficiency should absolutely feast in this matchup. Again, Arizona allows more PPG than all but five teams. UCLA ranks eighth nationally in scoring average. This is going to be fun!
The Wildcats rank outside the top 100 in FBS in both rushing defense and passing defense, giving up 200+ yards per game through both. Arizona's 481.3 total offensive yards allowed per game is 125th.
Heading into this juicy matchup with the Wildcats, UCLA averaged 511.8 total offensive yards per game, behind only Georgia. The Bruins just hung 50 at Arizona State on a D that ranks 30 spots better in efficiency than Arizona. If this isn’t UCLA’s highest-scoring game of the season, something is seriously wrong.
Where to Bet on Arizona vs. UCLA Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Arizona-UCLA picks made 11/9/2022 at 2:54 p.m. ET.
Brenden Schaeffer
Related Articles
