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Alabama vs. Michigan Prediction & Picks Today: ReliaQuest Bowl Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 31, 2024 9:00 AM EST • 3 min 58 sec read.

Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Ryan Williams walks toward the locker room after a victory over the Missouri Tigers, and he should play a role in our Alabama vs. Michigan prediction.
Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Ryan Williams walks toward the locker room after a victory over the Missouri Tigers. Photo by Will McLelland via Imagn Images.

It's a much different final showdown between these teams compared to last year when they met in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Rose Bowl. 

The two iconic programs will square off on New Year's Eve in the ReliaQuest Bowl following disappointing seasons, and we make our best Alabama vs. Michigan prediction as part of our college bowl game predictions this week.

Alabama felt wronged when it didn't become the first three-loss team to be included in the CFP after a challenging SEC schedule, but it'll get the opportunity to avenge last year's Rose Bowl defeat.

It doesn't appear to be a difficult matchup for the Crimson Tide, who are now 16.5-point favorites for this game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., set for noon ET on Tuesday (ESPN).

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

Alabama vs. Michigan prediction & best pick: ReliaQuest Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Alabama -13.5 () ⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Michigan team total Under 14.5 points () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Alabama vs. Michigan ATS prediction

Alabama to cover the spread: -13.5 ⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Michigan hit harder by opt-outs and transfer portal

Michigan did well to overcome an injury to its best cornerback, Will Johnson, in its upset of Ohio State in the regular season finale. But the roster challenges it must overcome in this matchup are much different.

The Wolverines had three of their top defensive linemen opt out of this bowl game, as well as their top two rushers (Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards) and their leading receiver in tight end Colston Loveland.

Michigan was already an offensively challenged team with a squad that ranked 98th in Quality Drives entering the Ohio State game. Now moving the ball became much more difficult with so many of its proven skill position players opting out.

Trust in Kalen DeBoer

Michigan may not have been a fixture in the top 25 for most of the season, but Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer’s track record against ranked teams entering the season was impressive.

To start the season, DeBoer was 12-2 against AP top-25 teams, and was 105-12 in his first nine seasons as a collegiate head coach. In addition, he went 25-3 at Washington, which were the most wins by a head coach in his first two seasons. 

DeBoer has won 10-plus games in eight of his nine seasons as a collegiate head coach, and a win in this ReliaQuest Bowl would clinch his ninth ten-win season in ten years. 

Coaching is a big part of a team’s advantage in bowl games, and I give DeBoer a big edge over Michigan’s Sherrone Moore.

Alabama vs. Michigan best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Michigan team total Under 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 56.52%

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Alabama may be thin at wide receiver due to injuries and opt-outs, but it still has much of its offensive identity with its top two wideouts, Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard, suiting up. Michigan, on the other hand, has completely lost its offensive identity.

As the Wolverines will be without running backs Donovan Edwards, Kalel Mullings, and tight end Colston Loveland, how will an offense that was already devoid of firepower move the football?

The Crimson Tide are surely not going to let the Wolverines ground and pound their way to remain competitive in this game, and Michigan ranks outside the top 80 in Pass Success.

That has me backing Michigan’s team total Under for my best game prop. The -130 odds at DraftKings for a total of 14.5 slightly trumps the -132 odds that FanDuel offers.

Alabama vs. Michigan odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Alabama vs. Michigan live odds

Alabama vs. Michigan opening odds:

  • Alabama: -11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Michigan: +11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Alabama vs. Michigan odds movement

As you can see this spread has ballooned to an absurd number after opening with Alabama already set as a significant 11.5-point favorite.

The Crimson Tide are now listed at -16.5 at nearly all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos.

The total has moved only a point or two from an opening number of 43.5, so the spread movement is a clear reaction to Michigan's opt-outs rather on offense rather than a significant increase in scoring by the favorites.

Alabama vs. Michigan injuries

ReliaQuest Bowl game info

  • When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
  • Kickoff: Noon ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 78 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph WSW
  • Favorite: Alabama -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”