Machibet APPAlabama vs. Ole Miss Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Must-Win for SEC Hopefuls

Oxford, Mississippi, plays host to one of the biggest games of the college football weekend as the ninth-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide travel to The Grove for an SEC showdown against the 11th-ranked Ole Miss Rebels. Read on for our top Alabama-Ole Miss college football picks.

Last week saw Alabama (5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U) suffer its second loss of the season in heartbreaking fashion. The Crimson Tide came back to force overtime against LSU before ultimately losing on a successful two-point conversion attempt in the extra period. Now with two SEC losses, Alabama’s chances of making the conference title game are bleak.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss (3-5-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U) comes into Saturday’s contest well-rested after a Week 10 bye. When last in action two weeks ago, the Rebels picked up a road win over Texas A&M. That victory got Ole Miss back on track after sustaining its first loss of the season on the road against LSU the week prior.

Here are our college football picks for the Week 11 matchup between Alabama and Ole Miss (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
Weather: 51 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 9-10 mph winds NW

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Odds

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Odds Analysis

After opening as a 10.5-point road favorite, Alabama has since been bet up to now laying a consensus spread of 12 points.

Despite the line move favoring the Crimson Tide, the latest betting splits via DraftKings actually show that the majority of tickets are on Ole Miss. Over 55% of all ATS bets made on this game as of Thursday evening like the Rebels to cover as double-digit home underdogs.

Only 15% of all outright winner tickets at DraftKings are on Ole Miss. However, that small percentage has actually accounted for nearly half of all money wagered on the moneyline.

As for the total, most sportsbooks opened with an Over/Under of 64. The market consensus sits just a half-point higher at 64.5 as of Thursday evening. At DraftKings, 65% of all bets are on the Over.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Picks

Alabama vs. Ole Miss ATS Pick

Ole Miss +12 (-110) ★★

This is a brutal scheduling spot for Alabama. Not only is this the Crimson Tide’s second straight game on the road against a top-15 opponent, but Ole Miss comes in rested off a bye to boot.

Plenty of college football betting analysts rushed to dismiss Ole Miss as a fraud after the wheels came off in the second half against LSU three weeks ago. Even as the Tigers have now also beaten Alabama, very few have come back around on the Rebels. While the Rebels lack a true statement and/or convincing win, they have consistently found ways to get the job done.

Head coach Lane Kiffin evolved his Rebels offense this season to the strengths of his personnel. The result has been a run-heavy attack with star freshman Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans featured prominently. Ole Miss has averaged 271.8 rushing yards per game as a team, second only to Air Force among FBS teams.

Bettors will also want to pay particular attention to how LSU’s game at Arkansas unfolds in the early window. If the Tigers are cruising, the Tide could know before kickoff that they are poised to be eliminated from the race to win the West Division. Could such a scenario possibly lead to a less-than-inspired effort from Alabama on the field?

Alabama vs. Ole Miss O/U Pick

Under 65 (-110) ★★★

The Under is certainly the contrarian play on the total. Last year’s matchup featured 63 total points, easily the lowest combined output in recent series history. Prior to scoring 42 points against Ole Miss last year, Alabama had single-handedly scored 59 or more points in four straight head-to-head meetings. That stretch included a 63-48 shootout win the last time the Crimson Tide visited Oxford.

Despite looking vulnerable on several occasions this season, there’s no disputing the fact that Ole Miss is greatly improved defensively relative to just two years ago. One also can’t help but wonder whether or not Alabama QB Bryce Young is compromised by the shoulder injury he sustained several weeks ago. Up until the fourth quarter of last week’s game, Young struggled mightily.

In reality, such offensive struggles haven’t been a complete anomaly for Alabama this season. The Crimson Tide have actually been held to 31 or fewer points in four of seven games against Power 5 teams. Each of the matchups where they flew past that number notably came against very poor defensive opponents.

Needless to say, this certainly isn’t the same offensive juggernaut that we have grown accustomed to seeing out of Tuscaloosa in recent years. Although Alabama’s receiver corps has improved as the season has gone on, it could be tested in a big way by a veteran-laden Ole Miss secondary.

Alabama vs. Ole Miss Prop Pick

Ole Miss +3.5 first-quarter spread (-115) ★★★★

Ole Miss may not win this game outright or even cover the spread. However, one has to like the prospects of the Rebels catching a field goal plus the hook in the first quarter.

As previously discussed, this is a nasty scheduling spot for Alabama. With kickoff slated for 2:30 p.m. local time, Rebels fans will have had several hours to pregame out in The Grove. As such, The Vaught will most definitely be loud and rowdy come game time.

Ole Miss has also thrived in the first quarter all season. The Rebs have averaged 10.0 points per game in the first 15 minutes of games with that average rising to 10.5 in home games.

While Alabama also ranks highly in first-quarter scoring, the average is inflated by early-season games against mid-major opponents. The Crimson Tide have averaged only 4.7 points in the first quarter of their last three games and only 7.8 when playing on the road this season.

Where to Bet on Alabama vs. Ole Miss Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Alabama-Ole Miss picks made 11/10/2022 at 5:06 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.