Machibet AffiliateAir Force vs. Army Picks, Predictions College Football Week 10: Falcons Favored by Touchdown

The first game of Week 10's college football Saturday pits the Air Force Falcons against the Army Black Knights. Read on for our top picks and predictions as Air Force looks to beat Army for the first time since 2019.

The Falcons are 5-3 overall and 4-4 against the spread, but they lost two of their last three games. They’re averaging 30.9 points per game for the season after scoring just 14 last week against Boise State.

The Black Knights have won two games in a row, and they outscored their opponents by 49 points in those two games. They won the last two meetings with Air Force, yet they are underdogs against the Falcons in Week 10. Do they have the talent to spring the upset?

Here are our Air Force-Army college football picks for Week 10 (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college football best bets and all of our top picks for Week 10.

Air Force vs. Army Game Info

Date: Saturday, Nov. 5, 11:30 a.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, TX
Weather: 73 degrees, 4% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds

Air Force vs. Army Odds

Air Force vs. Army Odds Analysis

As could be expected in a service academy game, the Over/Under has dropped from the consensus opening line of 41 to 40.5 as of Saturday morning with overwhelming betting support on the Under. The Under has drawn 69% of the tickets but a more modest 59% of the handle to suggest that some of the larger bets may be on the Over.

The spread has grown from -6.5 to -7 in favor of the Falcons with 72% of the tickets accounting for 83% of the handle on Air Force.

Air Force vs. Army Picks

Air Force vs. Army ATS Pick

Air Force -7 (-107) ★★★★

The Black Knights have won four of the last five meetings between these two, and the underdog at kickoff has won outright in three consecutive games.

The Black Knights played Coastal Carolina and UTSA tough at the beginning of the season, then they decimated Villanova who is having a down season. Since then, they haven’t been impressive. They have covered in just one of their last four games, and they were absolutely destroyed by Georgia State and Wake Forest, two of the best teams they have played this year.

The Falcons have scored 40 or more points three times this season, and they have given up 20 or more five times. With the Black Knights’ defense allowing nearly 30 points per game, and with how well the Falcons’ defense is playing, it’s hard to see the Black Knights keeping up even in a rivalry game.

Air Force vs. Army O/U Pick

Over 40 (-110) ★★★★

The Under has hit in eight consecutive meetings between these two teams. That includes the last two seasons when the total was set at 37.5 at kickoff.

Despite recent trends, these two teams are both averaging more than 30 points per game this season, so this feels like a really low total. These two teams are going to look to run the ball all game, with each team averaging over 330 yards on the ground per game.

But with how effectively these two teams run the ball, they should be able to get plenty of points on the board. The Black Knights may struggle a bit against a defense that is allowing just 16.8 points per game, but the Falcons should have no problem scoring near their season average which will be more than enough to send this Over.

Air Force vs. Army Prop Pick

Air Force Over 23.5 points (-110) ★★★★

The Falcons haven’t scored more than 20 points against the Black Knights since 2016 when they defeated Army 31-12. Yet, the Black Knights have not been able to stop anyone from scoring this season, and this Falcons’ offense is really good.

In seven games, the Black Knights have allowed 24 or more points in five games, and they have allowed their opponents to score 30 or more on four different occasions.

Even if the Black Knights can keep this closer than anticipated, they are going to do so by scoring. The Falcons will have no problem getting out of their offensive funk against the Black Knights and their below-average defense.

Where to Bet on Air Force vs. Army Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Air Force-Army picks made 11/2/2022 at 12:03 p.m. ET

Written By:
Philip Wood

Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.