Underwhelming Polling Support for Missouri Legal Sports Betting Puts Platform in Jeopardy

Proponents of a legal sports betting platform in Missouri got bad news this week from an Emerson College and The Hill poll that showed underwhelming support for such a platform in the Show-Me State. It looks like residents may not get access to our best sports betting sites any time soon.

Public opinion was thought to be supportive of finally legalizing Missouri sports betting, but a recent poll of 1,000 residents from June 17 to 19 said differently. While more citizens signaled support for a legal platform in the state than not, the number of supporters in the most recent poll fell well short of 50% that such a plan would need to pass, and that provides a possible signal to which way a potential vote on the November election ballot may go.

Emerson College polling showed that the majority of Missourians are either opposed to legalization or indifferent to a proposal to legalize retail and online sports betting in the state.

Gearing up for a possible ballot initiative

Winning for Missouri Education is a group in charge of trying to get the question of legal sports betting on the November election ballot. So far, the group consisting of pro sports betting proponents and the state’s sports teams (the NFL’s Kansas City Chiefs, MLB’s Kansas City Royals, and St. Louis Cardinals, the NHL’s St. Louis Blues, and MLS’s Kansas City Current and St. Louis City SC) has gathered 340,000 signatures supporting such a plan.

The group needed around 180,000 verified signatures for the question to even be considered for the election question.

In May, the group signaled optimism that such a question would be merely a formality and that support for legal sports betting from polls conducted early in the year was on their side.

Back in May, in a press release, the Winning for Missouri Education released a statement that sang the praises of such a platform for the state. It read, “Estimates suggest that Missourians currently place hundreds of millions in bets each year either by using illegal, offshore gaming websites, or by driving to neighboring states to place wagers. By legalizing sports gaming in Missouri, the initiative petition would halt much of this activity and instead provide tens of millions of dollars annually for Missouri classrooms, where teachers are some of the lowest paid in the entire country.”

Optimism turns to nervousness

Winning for Missouri Education had a reason for optimism when it started its petition drive supporting a legal sports betting platform for Missouri. In January, Emerson College polling suggested that 62% of voters in the Show-Me State would be in favor of legal retail and mobile sports betting, with 38% against such an idea.

In February, Saint Louis University conducted a public opinion poll that showed 60% of respondents in favor of sports betting, 25% against, and 14% unsure.

The most recent poll by Emerson College and The Hill saw support slip to 38% “For” a legal sports betting platform in the state, 35% against, and 26% unsure how they would vote on the question in November.

Next steps

State Secretary Jay Ashcroft is verifying signatures on the Winning for Missouri Education petition. Of the 340K submitted, just 180K are needed to move the question forward and have it appear on the election ballot in November.

It is expected that the process of verification will be completed sometime in July.

One thing that will likely have to change for the proponent group is messaging, according to Matt Taglia, the senior director of the polling outfit. "I think there’s some messaging work to do here if you’re on the side of passing sports betting in Missouri,” Taglia said. “I don’t think folks necessarily know what all it entails but a lot of them are, in principle, supportive of the idea.”

On the line

Missouri is one of the only states in its region currently without a legal sports betting platform, unable to reap the tax revenue benefits of such a platform. Oklahoma is the only other outlier in the area, with Arkansas sports betting, Iowa sports betting, Illinois sports betting, Kansas sports betting, Kentucky sports betting, Nebraska, and Tennessee sports betting all currently taking legal sports bets.

As it stands, all of Missouri's pro sports venues would be eligible for a retail sports wagering platform and a mobile sports betting license. All of the state's current retail casinos, including the 13 riverboat casinos, would also become eligible to house a sportsbook and could apply for a mobile license.

According to the Missouri Gaming Commission rules, two other licensed, not tied to a sports venue or riverboat casino would also be up for grabs.

Tax revenue from the proposed 10% tax rate would mostly benefit the state's K-12 education programs, while $5 million in tax revenue would be directed to problem gambling programs in the state.