Justin Trudeau’s Resignation Shakes Up Betting Markets like Polymarket

Not all of our best sports betting sites will dabble in the upcoming Canadian election, but there are markets out there and some major news on Monday shook things up.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6 after serving in the role since November 2015. While there is plenty of political fallout to go with the decision, there is also plenty of interest from a betting perspective, with Trudeau’s resignation inspiring plenty of markets on Polymarket and some of our best sportsbooks in Canada.

A variety of markets

Since Trudeau announced his upcoming resignation, markets like whether Canada will call a general election before April have gone live on Polymarket. Over $147,000 has already been spent on these predictions. The site gives a 72% chance an election will be called by March 31, 2025.

Meanwhile, predictions on who will be the next Canadian Prime Minister after the election are also available, which have generated over $493,000 in volume. Polymarket has given Conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre the best chance of taking the position at 89%. Bettors spent almost $290,000 on Poilievre as the next Prime Minister.

His closest competitor is former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland, who has a 9% chance and has attracted over $100,000 in wagers. Freeland is trailed by NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, with a 2% chance. Trudeau has a 1% chance of taking the position he just relinquished. 

Another popular political betting market is whether a no-confidence motion will be passed on Trudeau before April. Polymarket gives this a 1% chance of happening. However, the odds have fluctuated massively in recent weeks, hitting 81% in late December, which is why the market has attracted over $440,000 in wagers. 

Some of the best sports betting sites in Canada have also recently posted Canadian Federal Election odds.

There are also prediction markets available for the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party, now that Trudeau plans to step aside. This market has attracted far fewer wagers, only under $30,000. 

Despite being second-favorite to be the next Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland has only a 37% chance of being the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party behind Mark Carney at 45%.

Events contract wagering continues to focus on politics

Event contract wagering sites like Polymarket rose to prominence during the 2024 US elections, offering players the chance to make political predictions and win cash if they were correct. While Polymarket isn’t available in the US, other similar sites, like Talshi, allow US players to make legal predictions.

Polymarket caused more headlines than other operators thanks to significant wagers and profits from bettors, with one player in France hitting $48 million in profit after backing Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Aside from this, experts were impressed with how prediction platforms like Polymarket predicted the election results more accurately than exit polls, which had it as a neck-and-neck race.

Polymarket has tried to expand since gaining prominence from the 2024 presidential election, welcoming predictions on popular topics such as whether Elon Musk would be appointed to Congress.

Meanwhile, the prediction site also established several markets about Luigi Mangione, the UnitedHealthcare CEO murder suspect. Prediction markets included questions on when he would be extradited to New York, whether he’d plead guilty, and whether he is gay.