Flutter Revises US Revenue Prediction Due to Sports Betting Results

Betting results from one of our best sports betting sites have resulted in some financial changes for its parent company.

Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, has its 2024 US revenue and earnings projections due to unexpected challenges during the NFL season. Results that were more bettor-friendly, including a record streak of favorites winning in the NFL, also hurt the company's bottom line. Flutter now sees US revenue at approximately $5.41 billion versus its prior midpoint estimate of $5.78 billion, $370 million less.

The adjusted EBITDA could also decline by $205 million to land at $300 million. This is compared to the previously projected $505 million.

Despite the adjustment in the US market, Flutter's global operations delivered strong results. Preliminary data show revenue and EBITDA from markets outside the US came ahead of expectations. They were up 6% and 10% year-over-year, respectively. Flutter also hit its best New York Stock Exchange price in 2024, hitting $267 in November.

Collectively, these non-US businesses represent 63% of Flutter's projected 2025 EBITDA. They also remain the most critical component of the company's growth strategy. Flutter seeks to expand into major markets like Brazil and Italy through mergers and acquisitions.

Winning streaks impact market

This NFL season has been historically kind to bettors as they’ve been winning at their highest rate in nearly two decades. Sportsbooks like FanDuel, which rely on unpredictable outcomes to drive revenue, lost as a result. FanDuel is a betting behemoth in the United States, partly because you don't need a FanDuel promo code to take advantage of excellent bonuses.

The bettor-friendly nature of this environment translated into an estimated $438 million decline in GGR throughout the NFL season.

Against those headwinds, though, the US sports betting industry continued to show phenomenal growth. Licensed sportsbooks across 33 markets produced a record $150 billion in handle and $14.2 billion in operator revenue in 2024, year-over-year increases of 23% and 29%, respectively.

A record 9.5% hold further underlined the industry's profitability, as more than half of the reporting states realized double-digit hold percentages.

Flutter looking to the future

Flutter's FanDuel and DraftKings continued to dominate the US sports betting market, combining for more than 65% of the overall market revenue. ;

FanDuel remained the leading operator with a 40% national market share, producing $5.78 billion in gross revenue from $50.7 billion in wagers across 23 states in 2024. DraftKings came in second, with $4.67 billion in revenue from $49.4 billion in bets placed across 26 states.

Flutter continues to be confident in the long-term potential of the US market, reiterating its goal for U.S. operations to contribute nearly half of its anticipated profit growth by 2027.

However, the rate of market expansion will decelerate. Only Missouri sports betting, with a TAM of $580 million, is likely to legalize sports betting in 2025, while Alberta sports betting in Canada might launch later in the year.

Operators increasingly focus on revenue optimization strategies, such as parlay and in-play betting promotions. Parlays have become more popular, with the average number of legs per NFL parlay exceeding five in 2024. 

In-play betting, or the ability for consumers to place bets on events while they are live, is poised to drive spending higher.

Promotional spending strategies are similarly under scrutiny. At its Investor Day last year, Flutter unveiled plans to offset customer acquisition costs against profitability, focusing on promotional efficiency to improve net gaming revenue margins. Despite the setbacks, both operators are expected to grow strongly in 2025.

Analysts predict a 29% increase in revenue for FanDuel after the 37% jump in 2024. DraftKings is expected to increase 39% after rising 29% last year.