Congressman Musk? Prediction Markets Take Bets on the Billionaire to Join

There are ways to find action on some unusual topics that you can't find at our best sports betting sites. 

Popular prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket show little enthusiasm among bettors about Elon Musk’s chances of joining Congress. But there may still be a chance. The House of Representatives will choose the House Speaker, who does not have to be an elected member of Congress.

On social media platform X, owned by Mr. Musk, : “The Speaker of the House need not be a member of Congress… Nothing would disrupt the swamp more than electing Elon Musk… think about it… nothing’s impossible.”

While the world’s richest man has never run for office, he has been a major player on President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team. He is currently spearheading the Department of Government Efficiency with fellow businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, which focuses on reducing government spending and waste.

What are the odds?

Since Paul’s comments, Musk’s odds of succeeding House Speaker Mike Johnson have shortened on Kalshi, which is based in Lower Manhattan. Within just 24 hours, his odds increased by 3%. While Johnson remains the front-runner with odds of 57%, his stock dropped 17% in the same day. More than $1 million has been wagered on the outcome via Kalshi.

There are three others with better odds of becoming speaker than Musk, including:

• Rep. Jim Jordan (17%)
• Rep. Steve Scalise (12%)
• Rep. Tom Emmer (4%)

Meanwhile, Polymarket, which only deals in crypto, has taken over $21 million in bets on the House Speaker outcome. However, Musk’s shares are trading at just 2%. Johnson leads with 61%, followed by Jordan at 13%, Scalise at 12%, and Emmer at 9%.

Polymarket making headlines

Last week, Polymarket made headlines after the predictions site was found to be accepting bets on the fate of Luigi Mangione, who is suspected of killing UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson on December 4. The platform took over $160k in bets on whether his YouTube channel was legitimate. Several other markets were available, including whether he would plead guilty, at what point he would be extradited to New York, and whether he is gay.

Amid the presidential election in November, Polymarket also drew plenty of attention amongst bettors located outside of the US. The platform has not accepted US users since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) banned it in 2022. An anonymous trader known as the “French Trump Whale” bet more than $30 million on Trump to win the Electoral College and the popular vote, winning almost $50 million as a result.

Polymarket was restricted in France just weeks later, following an investigation by the Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ).

However, it may still be possible for bettors to access the site using a VPN, which has raised concerns. Less than two weeks after the election day, reports from several news sources revealed that the FBI raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s New York City home. Agents seized his phone and electronics in an attempt to determine whether US-based users were able to bet on the election outcome on the site.